20150821-DBS_Group-越秀地产-00123.HK-Lacking_catalysts_14页_397kb

报告摘要

Company Overview: Yuexiu Property Company Ltd is a PRC real estate developer with origins in Guangdong and operations in various cities across China. It also owns a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) platform, Yuexiu REIT (405.HK).
Current Recommendation: HOLD with a revised price target of HK$1.49, representing a 10% upside from the last traded price of HK$1.36.
Key Factors: The recommendation is based on the potential for better sales and margins, but the company faces ongoing margin pressure and cash collection concerns.

Sales: Increased by 8% to Rmb6,841 million, with 46% of the full year sales target locked in.
Core Earnings: Declined by 5% year-over-year to Rmb730 million, largely due to lower margins.
Gross Margin: Dropped from 34.5% in 1H14 to 26.4% in 1H15.
Core Net Margin: Reduced from 10.7% to 9.4%.
SG&A as % of Top Line: Decreased to 7.4% from 8.5%.
Cash Level: Declined by 13% to Rmb11,275 million.
Net Debt Ratio: Increased to 65.5% from 63.1%.
DPS: Reduced by 41% to HK$0.029.

FY Dec (RMBm)	2014A	2015F	2016F	2017F
Turnover	15,702	21,112	24,951	26,261
EBITDA	4,583	3,488	3,804	3,816
Pre-tax Profit	4,403	3,361	3,755	3,851
Net Profit	2,471	1,694	1,971	2,014
EPS (RMB)	0.23	0.14	0.16	0.16
EPS (HK$)	0.28	0.17	0.19	0.20
EPS Growth (%)	-24.7	-41.4	16.3	2.2
Diluted EPS (HK$)	0.28	0.17	0.19	0.20
DPS (HK$)	0.07	0.07	0.08	0.08
BV Per Share (HK$)	2.84	2.98	3.11	3.23
PE (X)	4.8	8.2	7.1	6.9
EV/EBITDA (X)	7.5	10.5	8.8	8.0
Net Div Yield (%)	5.3	5.1	5.7	5.8
P/Book Value (X)	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4
Net Debt/Equity (X)	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.4
ROAE (%)	9.3	5.7	6.3	6.2

Margin Pressure: The company faces margin pressure, with the ASP of unbooked revenue lower than that of recognized revenue.
Cash Collection: 1H15 cash collection was only about half of total sales, raising concerns about liquidity.
Capital Expenditure: Large capex items in 2H15 may further strain the balance sheet.
Valuation: The company is currently trading at 8.2x/7.1x FY15/16F PE, which is not attractive in the mid-cap universe.
NAV Estimate: The NAV estimate has been revised to HK$3.12, reflecting lower margins and Rmb depreciation.

Positive Aspects:
- Compelling proposition with improving fundamentals.
- Unique REIT platform for monetizing investment properties.
- Lower financial costs and access to funding.
- Support from the parent company.
- Ambitious expansion plans.
Risks:
- Macroeconomic Risks: A slowdown in China's economy could significantly impact the property sector.
- Policy Risks: Unexpected sector tightening or loosening could lead to wide-scale re-rating or de-rating.

Company	Price (HK$)	Mkt Cap (HK$bn/US$m)	Recom	12-m Target (HK$)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (X)	P/Bk (X)	NAV to NAV (HK$)	Disc/(Prem) (%)
China Overseas*	23.2	228.8 / 75.8	Buy	38.96	(8) / 7	7.4	25.4	8.8	-
Country Garden*	2.86	64.6 / 12.7	Buy	4.86	(20) / 8	5.4	4.4	35.0	-
CR Land*	18.9	131.0 / 49.4	Buy	31.30	(30) / 11	10.7	27.0	30.1	-
China Vanke 'H'	17.6	194.4 / 27.8	Buy	23.41	8 / 17	9.4	22.4	21.4	-
Dalian Wanda 'H'	52.6	238.1 / 63.6	NR	n.a.	(38) / 26	10.4	n.a.	n.a.	-
Evergrande*	4.73	68.6 / 94.0	Hold	3.81	(42) / 14	7.6	9.4	49.8	-
Longfor	10.08	58.7 / 5.9	NR	n.a.	(16) / 12	6.5	n.a.	n.a.	-
Shimao Property*	12.1	42.0 / 14.8	Buy	25.16	(7) / 9	4.6	28.5	57.6	-
Yuexiu Property*	1.36	16.9 / 5.9	Hold	1.49	(41) / 16	8.2	3.1	56.4	-

Yuexiu Property: Discounted to NAV by 5.7% (based on current trading price).
Valuation Methodology: The valuation is based on a 7.5x FY15 PE ratio, benchmarked to the 2011-YTD average PE.

Sales Target: Achievable, with 46% of full year sales locked in.
Margin Pressure: Still exists, with lower ASP for unbooked revenue.
Cash Collection: Concerning, with only half of 1H15 sales collected.
Valuation: Trading at a discount to NAV, but not attractive in the mid-cap sector.
Recommendation: HOLD due to lack of catalysts and ongoing margin and liquidity issues.

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