2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Iraq_First_and_Second_Reviews_of_the_Staff_102页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of the IMF's Three-Year Stand-By Arrangement for Iraq

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a three-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Iraq, providing SDR 3.831 billion (approximately US$5.34 billion or 230 percent of quota) to support the government's economic reform program. This arrangement is part of the broader effort to address a double shock from the ISIS conflict and the sharp decline in global oil prices.

The SBA aims to stabilize Iraq's economy by addressing urgent balance of payments needs, aligning spending with lower oil revenues, and ensuring debt sustainability. It also includes measures to protect the poor, strengthen public financial management, enhance financial sector stability, and curb corruption.

The IMF's Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), initiated in November 2015, has been broadly satisfactory in helping the authorities establish credibility and prepare for a potential SBA. The first and second reviews of the SMP were completed in May and June 2016, leading to the approval of the SBA.

The Executive Board approved the SBA, enabling the disbursement of SDR 455 million (about US$634 million). In July 2015, Iraq had received SDR 891.3 million (about US$1.24 billion) under the Rapid Financing Instrument.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Economic Context and Challenges

Iraq has faced a double shock from the ISIS conflict and falling oil prices.
The conflict has caused displacement of over 4 million people, humanitarian needs for 10 million people, and destruction of infrastructure.
Real GDP contracted by 2.4 percent in 2015, despite a 13 percent increase in oil production.
The non-oil economy contracted by 19 percent, due to conflict and fiscal consolidation.

2. IMF Program Summary

The program is structured around four pillars:
- Managing external pressures: Maintaining the exchange rate peg, removing exchange restrictions, and strengthening AML-CFT framework.
- Implementing fiscal consolidation: Reducing non-oil primary expenditure, protecting social spending, and aiming for debt sustainability.
- Strengthening public financial management: Overhauling PFM systems, improving fiscal discipline, and preventing arrears.
- Monitoring financial risks: Restructuring state-owned banks, strengthening prudential standards, and improving financial sector stability.

3. Key Policy Recommendations

Reduce overall spending to a sustainable level by freezing expenditures at 2015 levels.
Protect social spending in areas like health, education, and food subsidies.
Overhaul Public Financial Management (PFM) to improve spending quality and prevent arrears.
Restructure state-owned banks to enhance financial sector stability and efficiency.

4. Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Government revenue decreased from 42.2% of GDP in 2013 to 34.3% in 2015.
Oil revenue fell from 38.6% of GDP in 2013 to 31.2% in 2015.
Non-oil primary fiscal balance improved from -67.6% of non-oil GDP in 2014 to -34.8% in 2021.
Fiscal deficit was reduced from 14.3% of GDP in 2015 to less than 1% of GDP by 2021.
GDP per capita increased from US$7,021 in 2013 to US$5,164 in 2021.

5. Debt and Reserve Indicators

Total government debt rose from 31.2% of GDP in 2013 to 63.9% in 2015.
External government debt increased to 42.3% of GDP in 2015.
Official foreign exchange reserves fell to $53 billion (10 months of imports) by end-2015 and further to $50 billion by end-March 2016.
Reserve adequacy was 195% of the standard RA metric (above the 100-150% range), and 125% of the adjusted RA metric for oil exporters (within the adequacy range).

6. IMF Financing and Support

The SBA aims to close a financing gap of $18.1 billion during 2016–19.
Financing assurances are in place to fully close the gap for the next 18 months.
The IMF and World Bank provided $1.2 billion in loans in 2015 to help finance the deficit.

7. Political and Institutional Challenges

Tensions between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) remain.
The budget-sharing agreement is under negotiation to ensure fair revenue distribution.
Cabinet reshuffling was proposed by Prime Minister Abadi to address corruption and inefficiency.
Refugee influx has increased the humanitarian burden, with 250,000 Syrian refugees in the country.

8. Outlook and Risks

The outlook is moderately positive, with the expectation of moderately higher oil prices and successful fiscal consolidation.
However, risks remain high, including:
- A further fall in oil prices.
- Worsening of the ISIS conflict.
- Political instability.
- Weak administrative capacity.

9. IMF Staff Appraisal

The IMF staff report was completed on June 24, 2016, following discussions with Iraqi officials from May 19 to July 7, 2016.
The Executive Director issued a statement emphasizing the importance of the exchange rate peg and the need for structural reforms in public financial management and bank restructuring.