20240107-国投证券-坚守_直至新的信号出现_7页_806kb

Summary of Financial Engineering Regular Report

Market View

The report advises holding until new market signals appear. It assesses that while market bottom features may indicate a possible rebound, recent rebounds were short-lived and underperformed expectations. Despite this, the market could face adjustment pressure based on trend cycle analysis.

Key Reasoning

• Cycle analysis models suggest ongoing adjustment pressure.
• Temperature gauge analysis indicates that the recent rebound was likely due to oversold conditions, but high-frequency indicators are elevated, implying the rebound has lost momentum.
• From Gann theory, a symmetric low point on daily charts supports the idea that the market is near a critical technical support level (similar to the 2022 low at 2863), reinforcing the need to hold.
• An overnight quantitative timing system is recommended to wait for new signals.

Recommendations

• Until positive signals emerge, focus on high-dividend strategies in industry selection.
• If new market signals are positive, revisit opportunities in undervalued growth sectors.

Safeguards

The analysis is based on historical data and models, which may not perform optimally during market changes. References include analyst declarations and disclaimers from Guotou Securities, emphasizing that the report is for client use only and does not constitute investment advice.