皮尤-拜登2020年胜利的背后（英）-2021.6-36页_1mb

Summary of "Behind Biden's 2020 Victory"

Core Content

This report by the Pew Research Center provides an in-depth analysis of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, focusing on the composition of the electorate and how their voting behavior differed from the 2016 and 2018 elections. The study uses validated voter data from the American Trends Panel (ATP), combining survey responses with official voter turnout records.

Main Findings

Voter Turnout and Composition

• Turnout increased significantly in 2020, with 66% of U.S. adult citizens voting, a 7 percentage point rise from 2016.
• Turnout patterns showed that most voters who participated in 2016 and 2018 also voted in 2020.
• New voters (those who did not vote in 2016 or 2018) made up 25% of 2020 voters, with 6% of all voters being new or irregular voters.

Voting Patterns by Party and Ideology

• Party loyalty was strong in 2020: 92% of Republicans supported Trump, and 94% of Democrats supported Biden.
• Independents and other party affiliates showed a 52%-43% preference for Biden over Trump.
• Ideological core voters were more likely to support their party's candidate: 97% of conservative Republicans supported Trump, while 98% of liberal Democrats supported Biden.

Demographic Shifts

• Suburban voters shifted more toward Biden than toward Trump, helping to close the gender gap.
• Black voters remained a strong Democratic base, with 92% supporting Biden.
• Hispanic voters were diverse in their support, with Biden winning 69% of college-educated Hispanic voters and 55% of non-college-educated ones.
• White non-college voters were still a key group for Trump, with 65% of them supporting him in 2020, similar to 2016.
• White college-educated voters supported Biden by 33% (up from Clinton’s 28% in 2016).

Age and Generational Trends

• Younger voters (ages 18-29) strongly favored Biden, with a 24-point margin (59% vs. 35%).
• Millennials (ages 24-39) also supported Biden, though Trump gained 8 points compared to 2016.
• Gen Xers (ages 40-55) were evenly split (51% Biden, 48% Trump).
• Baby Boomers and Silent Generation (ages 65+) were more evenly divided.
• Gen Z (ages 18-23) constituted 8% of the electorate and supported Biden by 24 points.

Geographic Trends

• Urban and suburban voters leaned Democratic, with Biden receiving 66% of urban votes and 54% of suburban votes.
• Rural voters were more likely to support Trump, with 65% of them voting for him in 2020, up from 59% in 2016.
• White rural voters were 71% for Trump in 2020, compared to 62% in 2016.

Voting Methods

• Mail-in voting increased to 46% of voters, with 40% of these voters reporting it was their first time voting by mail.
• Hispanic and White voters were more likely to vote by mail, while Black voters were more likely to vote early in person.

Comparison with 2016 and 2018

• The gender gap narrowed in 2020, with Biden gaining among men and Trump among women.
• Suburban and urban voters were more supportive of Democrats in 2020 than in 2016.
• Hispanic voter support for Democrats increased from 48% in 2016 to 59% in 2020.

Key Information

• The report emphasizes the importance of validated voter data to understand the true composition and behavior of the electorate.
• It highlights the continuity and change in voter behavior across the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections.
• Age, education, and geography played a critical role in shaping the 2020 electorate.
• The overall shift in support among key demographic groups helped Biden secure his victory.

Methodology

• The study used Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, a large, ongoing survey panel.
• Turnout verification was done using commercial voter files.
• The data was weighted to reflect the U.S. adult population in terms of various demographic and political characteristics.

This analysis contributes to a broader understanding of the 2020 election by combining survey data with official voter records, offering a more accurate depiction of the electorate than self-reported data alone.