2008-02-02-皮尤-McCain_s_Support_Soars,_Democratic_Race_Tightens_18页_104kb

报告摘要

Key Findings:

Democratic Race:

Barack Obama's support increased significantly, from 26% to 38% of Democrats, while Hillary Clinton's support remained steady at 46%. This narrowing gap suggests significant gains for Obama.
Obama gained support among various groups: whites, white men specifically, political moderates, middle-income Democrats, and those not affiliated strongly with the party.
Clinton saw continued support from older voters, conservative Democrats, women, less educated and poorer Democrats. Liberal Democrats remained split between her and Obama.
The Democratic field had improved overall enthusiasm among voters compared to the Republican field.

Republican Race:

John McCain solidified his lead, especially surprising Republicans, after winning the "closed" Florida primary.
McCain gained support across nearly all Republican voter segments, although evangelical Protestants remain his largest group. His broad appeal contrasts with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

National Conditions:

Dissatisfaction with the nation's direction and economy was very high, reaching record lows according to the survey.

Democratic Race Summary:
Barack Obama saw a significant rise in support among various Democratic groups, including whites, moderates, and middle-income voters, while Hillary Clinton's support remained steady. Growth was notable among white men, reflecting a shift from previously more Democratic-aligned groups. Clinton maintained strong backing from older voters, conservatives, and those less affluent or educated. Liberal Democrats stayed evenly split. The key factor in the Democratic nomination depended on undecided voters. The ongoing question about Bill Clinton returning to the White House if Hillary won showed potential opposition or disapproval.

Republican Race Summary:
John McCain secured a commanding lead across the Republican electorate. His post-Florida wins, especially in "closed" primaries, were unexpected and demonstrated stronger Republican backing than previously anticipated. His broad appeal, even among opponents' supporters, formed a key advantage. The national votes highlighted a Republican field weakened by low enthusiasm and dissatisfaction among some voters.

Elections/Voter Motivation:
Among registered voters in the current year, fewer had given thought to the candidates, suggesting decreased interest but not seen as negligible. Voter intention to register also slightly declined, while overall party identification stayed relatively consistent across years. Changing preferences among undecided registered voters were crucial for both campaign contenders. Regional differences from earlier primary results, like less favorable outcomes for Obama in "red" states, were noted, though precisely influenced regional diversities.