2010-11-02-皮尤-The_Latino_Vote_in_the_2010_Elections_13页_184kb

The Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections Summary

Core Content

This report analyzes the voting behavior of Latino voters in the 2010 U.S. midterm elections, focusing on the U.S. House of Representatives and key state-level races in Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. It highlights the growing political influence of Latinos and their consistent support for Democratic candidates despite notable exceptions in certain states.

Main Points

• Historic Republican Wins: For the first time in U.S. history, three Latino Republican candidates won top statewide offices:

  • Susana Martinez (Republican) became the first Latina governor in New Mexico.
  • Brian Sandoval (Republican) was elected the first Hispanic governor in Nevada.
  • Marco Rubio (Republican) won the U.S. Senate race in Florida.

• Democratic Majority in Latino Vote: Despite these Republican victories, Democratic candidates generally won the Latino vote by wide margins:

  • In the national House exit poll, 60% of Latino voters supported Democratic candidates, while 38% supported Republicans.
  • In 2006, 69% of Latinos voted for Democrats in Congressional races, and in 2008, 67% supported Barack Obama over John McCain.

• State-Level Breakdown:

  • Arizona: Latino voters supported Democratic candidates in both the gubernatorial and Senate races.
  • California: Democrat Jerry Brown won 64% of the Latino vote in the gubernatorial race, and Barbara Boxer won 65% in the Senate race.
  • Florida: The Latino vote was more Republican-leaning, with Marco Rubio receiving 55% in the Senate race and Rick Scott getting 50% in the gubernatorial race.
  • Nevada: Republican Brian Sandoval won 33% of the Latino vote in the gubernatorial race, while Democrat Harry Reid received 69% in the Senate race.
  • Texas: The report includes results for the gubernatorial race, though specific figures are not detailed.

• Voter Demographics:

  • 19 million Latinos were eligible to vote in the 2010 midterms, the highest number in U.S. history.
  • Latinos represented 8% of all voters in the national House race, the same proportion as in 2006.
  • The presence of Cuban-American communities in Florida contributed to a more Republican-leaning Latino vote in that state.

• Comparison with White Non-Hispanic Voters:

  • White non-Hispanic voters largely supported Republican candidates, with 60% voting for Republicans in the House race.
  • This contrast highlights the distinct political preferences of Latino voters compared to other racial groups.

• Methodology:

  • The report uses exit poll data from CNN and Edison Research, analyzed by the Pew Hispanic Center.
  • Reweighting of the National Election Pool's data was applied to reflect updated results as of December 30, 2010.

Key Information

• Terminology: The terms "Latino" and "Hispanic" are used interchangeably. "Whites" and "blacks" refer to the non-Hispanic components of their respective populations.
• Author: Mark Hugo Lopez, associate director of the Pew Hispanic Center, is the author of the report. He has expertise in Latino youth, crime, labor economics, civic engagement, and voting behavior.
• Citation: The report should be cited as: Lopez, Mark Hugo. "The Latino Vote in the 2010 Elections," Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, D.C. (November 3, 2010).

Conclusion

The 2010 midterm elections marked a significant moment for Latino political participation, with notable Republican victories at the state level. However, nationally, Latino voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates, reflecting a consistent trend in their political preferences. The report underscores the importance of understanding the unique dynamics of the Latino electorate, particularly in states like Florida where Cuban-American communities have a stronger influence.