2004-06-23-皮尤-Swing_Vote_Smaller_Than_Usual,_But_Still_Sizable_12页_159kb

Analysis Summary

Introduction

The report compares the size and characteristics of the presidential swing vote in the 2004 election cycle to data from previous presidential campaigns in 1992, 1996, and 2000. Findings indicate a reduction in swing voters, while remaining substantial enough to influence election outcomes.

Core Comparison

• Swing Vote Size: The percentage of undecided or possibly changeable voters decreased from 32% in 2000 to 21% in 2004, compared to 31% in 1992, 27% in 1996, and varying percentages in prior years. This represents a significant decline but still constitutes a notable share of voters.

Characteristics of Swing Voters

• Opinions and Moderation: Swing voters (21%) are politically moderate, with favorable views of both candidates (about one-third hold positive opinions). They prioritize issues like the economy, Iraq situation, and terrorism similarly to committed voters but show slightly less enthusiasm for specific issues, such as Bush's job performance.
• Engagement: Only about one-quarter of swing voters have closely followed campaign news or given much thought to it.
• Demographics: Similar to the overall electorate demographically, with more Catholics and fewer white evangelicals. However, they are less ideological and more divided on partisan lines.

Implications for the Campaign

• Targeting: Candidates increasingly focus on uncommitted voters in battleground states (e.g., key swing states like Florida, Ohio), where uncommitted voters make up a small but pivotal 9% of the electorate.
• Key Groups: Data shows red and blue states have varying levels of support for candidates, while battleground states remain evenly split, reinforcing the need for broad voter outreach.

Conclusion

While the swing vote has shrunk compared to previous elections, it remains a key variable in the electoral landscape, potentially decisive for candidate victories due to its size and moderating views.

| Campaign Year | % Certain Bush | % Certain Kerry | % Swing Voters | Key Trend |
|---------------|----------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------|
| 2000          | 39%            | 33%             | 28%             | Decline |
| 2004          | 40%            | 39%             | 21%             | Continued Decline |