2021-06-30-皮尤-Behind_Biden_s_2020_Victory_34页_1mb

Summary of "Behind Biden's 2020 Victory"

Core Content

This report by the Pew Research Center examines the 2020 U.S. presidential election through the lens of validated voters, analyzing how turnout and vote choices changed from 2016 and 2018. It highlights the demographic and ideological shifts that contributed to Joe Biden's victory over Donald Trump.

Key Findings

Voter Turnout

• Voter turnout in the 2020 election increased by 7 percentage points compared to 2016, reaching 66% of U.S. adult citizens.
• About 25% of 2020 voters had not voted in 2016, with 6% of all 2020 voters having voted in 2018 but not in 2016.
• The 19% of new or irregular voters in 2020 split roughly evenly between Biden and Trump.

Demographic Shifts

• Suburban voters and independents showed significant shifts in support, benefiting Biden more than Trump.
• Black voters remained overwhelmingly loyal to the Democratic Party, with 92% voting for Biden.
• Hispanic voters were more diverse in their support, with Biden winning 59% of the vote overall, but a 38% margin among college-educated Hispanics.
• White non-college voters were still a key group for Trump, with him securing 65% of their votes in 2020, similar to 2016.
• Young voters (under 30) favored Biden by 24 percentage points, showing a strong age gap in favor of the Democratic candidate.

Educational Differences

• A clear educational divide persisted, with Biden receiving 69% of college-educated Hispanic voters and 55% of non-college-educated Hispanic voters.
• Among White voters, Biden's support among college graduates was similar to Clinton's in 2016, while Trump's share among non-college voters was nearly the same as in 2016.

Gender Gap

• The gender gap narrowed in 2020, with Biden gaining support among men and Trump gaining among women.
• White men without a college degree supported Trump by 35% to 31%, a smaller gap than in 2016.
• White women without a college degree supported Trump by 64% to 35%, while college-educated White women supported Biden by 59% to 40%.

Generation Differences

• Millennials and Gen Z voters favored Biden by 20 percentage points, while Gen Xers and Baby Boomers were more evenly split.
• Silent Generation voters (ages 75-92) showed the strongest support for Trump (58% to 42%).

Geography

• The urban-suburban-rural divide remained significant.
• Urban voters supported Biden by 66% to 33%, compared to 70% to 24% in 2016.
• Suburban voters supported Biden by 54% to 43%, up from 45% to 47% in 2016.
• Rural voters favored Trump by 65% to 33%, an increase from 59% to 33% in 2016.

Religious Affiliation

• White evangelical Protestants remained a strong base for Trump, with 84% supporting him in 2020.
• Atheists and agnostics showed increased support for Biden, with 91% of these voters backing him.
• Black voters were largely aligned with the Democratic Party, with 92% voting for Biden.

Party and Ideology

• Party loyalty was a major factor in the election, with Trump receiving 92% support from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and Biden getting 94% from Democrats and Democratic leaners.
• Independents showed a slight advantage to Biden (52% to 43%), indicating a shift in political alignment.

Voting Methods

• Mail-in voting became more common, with 46% of 2020 voters using this method.
• Hispanic and White voters were more likely to vote by mail, while Black voters were more likely to vote early in person.

Conclusion

The 2020 election was marked by increased turnout, demographic shifts, and ideological realignment. While Biden benefited from gains among younger voters, Black, Hispanic, and Asian communities, and suburban areas, Trump retained strong support among White non-college voters, White women, and rural areas. The report underscores the importance of validated voter data in understanding the nuances of the electorate and highlights the complexity of voter behavior across different groups.