IEA-清洁能源转型中关键矿物的角色（英文）-2021.5-287页_4mb

Summary of The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions

Core Content

The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights the pivotal role of critical minerals in the global transition to clean energy. As countries strive to meet climate goals, the demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earth elements, copper, and graphite is set to increase dramatically, posing new challenges to energy security.

Main Points

• Clean energy technologies require more minerals: The deployment of solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles (EVs) significantly increases the demand for critical minerals compared to traditional fossil fuel-based systems. For example, an electric car requires six times more minerals than a conventional car, and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more than a gas-fired power plant.

• Rapid growth in mineral demand: Under the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), mineral demand for clean energy technologies is expected to quadruple by 2040. In a faster transition scenario, it could increase sixfold. EVs and battery storage are major drivers of this demand, with lithium seeing the fastest growth (over 40 times), followed by graphite, cobalt, and nickel (around 20-25 times). Copper demand for electricity networks is also projected to more than double.

• Current supply and investment plans are insufficient: Existing supply and investment strategies are not aligned with the accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies. This could lead to price volatility, supply disruptions, and increased costs for energy transitions.

• Geographical concentration of production: Many critical minerals are produced in a few countries, with the top three producers controlling over 75% of global output for lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. China dominates processing and refining, with over 90% of rare earth element refining, 70% of cobalt production, and significant shares in lithium and nickel.

• Environmental and social challenges: The production of critical minerals is associated with significant environmental and social impacts, including water stress, greenhouse gas emissions, and risks related to waste and water management, worker safety, and human rights. These challenges must be addressed to ensure sustainable and responsible mineral development.

• Climate risks to mineral production: Mining operations are increasingly exposed to climate risks, such as water stress for copper and lithium, and extreme weather events in major producing regions. These risks can affect the reliability and sustainability of mineral supply.

Key Recommendations

The IEA outlines six key recommendations to ensure mineral security:

1. Ensure adequate investment in diversified sources of new supply: Governments should provide clear signals about energy transition goals to encourage investment in new mineral supply projects.

2. Promote technology innovation: Innovation in both demand and production can improve material efficiency, enable substitution, and unlock new supply sources.

3. Scale up recycling: Recycling is crucial for reducing reliance on primary supply. Policies should support efficient collection, sorting, and development of new recycling technologies.

4. Enhance supply chain resilience and market transparency: Regular market assessments, stress tests, and strategic stockpiling can help manage supply risks. Transparent pricing benchmarks are also essential.

5. Mainstream higher environmental, social, and governance standards: Strengthening sustainability and responsibility standards in mineral production will help mitigate environmental and social risks.

6. Strengthen international cooperation: No single country can address the challenges of mineral supply alone. International collaboration is necessary to ensure secure and sustainable mineral access for clean energy transitions.

Conclusion

The IEA underscores the importance of critical minerals in achieving a clean energy future. While the risks to mineral supply are real, they are surmountable through strategic investment, innovation, recycling, and international cooperation. Policy makers and companies must work together to ensure that these minerals remain a vital enabler rather than a bottleneck for global climate action.