2024-05-26-IEA-2024年全球关键矿产展望（英）_282页_21mb

Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a comprehensive analysis of the critical minerals market, focusing on its role in the energy transition and the challenges it faces. It highlights the dynamics of supply and demand, market price trends, investment patterns, and policy implications for the future of clean energy technologies.

Main Points

• Critical minerals are essential for clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs), solar PV, wind, and hydrogen production. They have become a key policy concern due to rising demand, price volatility, supply chain bottlenecks, and geopolitical tensions.
• The IEA was requested by G7 ministers to provide medium- and long-term outlooks for critical minerals, as part of the Five-Point Plan to safeguard minerals security.
• The 2023 market saw a sharp decline in prices after two years of increases, with battery metals like lithium experiencing a 75% drop and cobalt, nickel, and graphite dropping by 30-45%. The IEA Energy Transition Mineral Price Index tripled from 2020 to 2022, but most of the gains were reversed by 2023.
• Clean energy deployment continued to grow in 2023, with solar PV and wind accounting for the majority of new capacity additions. EVs also saw strong growth, with sales reaching nearly 14 million, a 35% year-on-year increase.
• In the NZE Scenario, EV sales share is projected to rise from 18% to 65% by 2030, significantly increasing battery demand to 6 TWh by 2030. Battery storage is expected to grow even faster than EVs.
• Market value of key energy transition minerals is projected to more than double by 2040 in the NZE Scenario, reaching USD 770 billion, with copper alone expected to surpass this value.
• China is a major player in the critical minerals market, with significant investments and production in lithium, nickel, and cobalt, as well as a dominant role in refining and graphite.
• Supply concentration remains a key issue, with lithium and graphite being the most concentrated, over 90% and 77% respectively, originating from China in 2030. This poses risks to supply chain resilience, especially under the "N-1" scenario, where the largest supplier is excluded.
• Investment in critical minerals continued to grow in 2023, with lithium specialists seeing a 60% increase, exploration spending up by 15%, and venture capital up by 30%. However, price declines have made investment in new supply less attractive.
• ESG performance shows progress in areas like worker safety, gender balance, and renewable energy use, but waste, emissions, and water consumption remain problematic. Voluntary sustainability standards can help improve performance, but more transparency and incentives are needed.
• Recycling, innovation, and behavioral change are critical to reducing reliance on primary supply. In the NZE Scenario, recycling could reduce primary supply needs by up to 30% for copper and cobalt, and 25% for lithium.
• Market transparency is essential to support informed decision-making and reduce risks. The Critical Minerals Data Explorer will be updated to provide better insights.
• Policy implications include the need for diversification of supply chains, investment support, and regulatory clarity to ensure reliable, affordable, and sustainable access to critical minerals.

Key Minerals and Their Outlooks

• Copper: The largest increase in production volume, expected to almost quadruple by 2040. It is crucial for electricity networks and grid infrastructure.
• Lithium: Sees the most rapid demand growth, especially due to EV battery needs. Demand is projected to increase by a factor of nine by 2040.
• Nickel, Cobalt, and Graphite: Demand is expected to double by 2030 and quadruple by 2040 in the NZE Scenario. These minerals are also highly concentrated in supply.
• Rare Earth Elements (REEs): Face significant geopolitical risks and market concentration, with over 77% of refined REEs originating from China by 2030.

Scenarios and Projections

• STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario): Reflects current policies, with a projected temperature rise of 2.4°C by 2100.
• APS (Announced Pledges Scenario): Assumes full and timely fulfillment of climate commitments, with a projected temperature rise of 1.7°C by 2100.
• NZE (Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario): Aims for 1.5°C temperature rise by 2100, with clean energy technologies driving demand for critical minerals.

Investment and Policy Needs

• Investment in mining is expected to reach USD 800 billion by 2040 to meet the NZE Scenario.
• Diversification of supply chains is crucial to avoid vulnerabilities. However, current investment trends suggest that most supply is still concentrated in a few countries.
• Policy measures are needed to support diversified supply, recycling, and market transparency.
• Geopolitical risks and environmental concerns are significant, especially with the concentration of refining in China and high carbon intensity in current refining operations.

Conclusion

The Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024 underscores the importance of market transparency, diversification, and sustainable practices in ensuring the reliable and resilient supply of critical minerals necessary for the global energy transition. While demand is growing rapidly, supply challenges and price volatility remain, requiring strategic investments and policy interventions to support clean energy goals.