关键矿物（稀土等）供应链的地缘政治（英）-美国智库-2021.3-38页_626kb

Summary of "The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals Supply Chains" by Jane Nakano

Core Content

This report by Jane Nakano from the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change Program examines the geopolitical implications of the global critical minerals supply chains, with a focus on how the United States, the European Union, and Japan are responding to the strategic risks posed by China's dominance in the production and processing of these materials.

Main Viewpoints

• Rising Demand for Critical Minerals: The global demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare-earth elements is expected to grow exponentially due to the expansion of clean energy technologies, particularly electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, and solar photovoltaics (PV).
• China's Dominance: China is a major player in the global supply chain for critical minerals, controlling over 85% of rare-earth element production and significant portions of other key materials like lithium and cobalt. Its industrial policies and investments have strengthened its position in both upstream and downstream segments.
• Geopolitical Leverage: China has used its control over critical minerals as a tool for geopolitical influence, exemplified by its 2010 rare-earth embargo on Japan and its 2020 call for increased global reliance on its supply chains.
• Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The global supply chains for critical minerals are fragile, as seen during the 2020 pandemic, which disrupted the flow of materials like cobalt.
• Strategic Responses: The United States, the EU, and Japan have all taken steps to secure their supply chains, though their approaches vary based on their unique economic and industrial contexts.

Key Information

Global Demand for Critical Minerals

• Clean energy technologies, including EVs, wind turbines, and solar PV, are driving demand for critical minerals.
• According to the World Bank, the demand for electric storage battery minerals could increase by over 450% by 2050 if the Paris Climate Agreement goals are met.
• Rare-earth elements are essential for permanent magnets in wind turbines, while lithium, cobalt, and manganese are crucial for lithium-ion batteries.

China's Role in the Supply Chain

• Production and Processing: China controls over 90% of global solar PV wafer manufacturing, 72% of lithium-ion battery module manufacturing, and a majority of processing capacities for key battery components.
• Resource Endowment: China holds about one-third of global rare-earth reserves.
• Policy and Industrial Development: China's industrial policies, such as the Made in China 2025 initiative, have focused on expanding downstream manufacturing and technological innovation.
• Export Controls: China has historically used export quotas and restrictions to control rare-earth prices and maintain strategic leverage. These controls were challenged in 2014 by the WTO.

Strategies of the United States, EU, and Japan

U.S. Status and Strategy

• Historical Leadership: The U.S. was once a global leader in rare-earth production, with the Mountain Pass mine as a major source.
• Current Dependence: The U.S. now relies heavily on imports, especially from China, for rare-earth elements and other critical minerals.
• Policy Initiatives: The Department of Energy (DOE) has been central to developing strategies for critical minerals, including the Critical Materials Strategy in 2010 and 2011.
• Executive Order 13817: Defines critical minerals as those essential to U.S. economic and national security, with vulnerable supply chains and significant economic consequences if unavailable.
• Recent Actions: The U.S. is working to develop domestic processing capabilities and reduce reliance on foreign sources through the Defense Production Act and investments in research and development.

Conclusion

• The strategic importance of securing critical minerals supply chains is increasing due to their role in clean energy technologies and their geopolitical significance.
• China's dominance in these supply chains has raised concerns among other major economies, prompting them to take various measures to enhance their security.
• The U.S., EU, and Japan are adopting different strategies, reflecting their distinct priorities and challenges, but all aim to reduce vulnerability and ensure supply chain resilience.