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报告摘要

Offshore Wind Development Program for Türkiye

Core Content

This document presents the Offshore Wind Roadmap for Türkiye, developed by the World Bank Group's Offshore Wind Development Program, led by ESMAP and IFC. The report outlines the strategic potential for offshore wind development in Türkiye, considering environmental, social, and technical factors, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with the industry. It also provides recommendations and growth scenarios for the development of offshore wind farms (OWFs) in the country.

Main Points

1. Electricity Demand and Mix

Türkiye's electricity demand is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.5%, reaching 511 TWh by 2035.
To meet this demand, ~100 GW of new generation capacity is required between 2020 and 2035, more than doubling current capacity.
The current electricity mix includes significant shares of coal, natural gas, and renewables, with onshore wind being a major contributor.
Offshore wind is seen as a low-carbon alternative that can complement other renewable sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports.

2. Offshore Wind Potential

Türkiye has a total technical potential of 75 GW for offshore wind.
Floating wind is the most viable solution due to the majority of suitable areas being deeper than 50 meters.
The initial exploration areas are located in the Aegean Sea, Sea of Marmara, and Black Sea, with Canakkale and Ayvalik being the most promising.
Only ~66 GW of the total potential is considered technically and environmentally viable, representing ~88% of the current generation capacity.
Shallow water areas (less than 50 meters) suitable for fixed-foundation projects are limited to ~6.8 GW across 1,510 km², while floating projects have a much larger potential of ~59.7 GW across 13,270 km².

3. Cost of Energy (LCOE)

The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for offshore wind is expected to be competitive in the long term.
Low growth scenario estimates LCOE at ~50-60 USD/MWh by 2050.
High growth scenario shows a more favorable LCOE trajectory due to economies of scale and local content.

4. Economic and Employment Impact

Offshore wind development is expected to create significant job opportunities, particularly in the supply chain and construction sectors.
Local content in supply chain and employment is anticipated to be ~75%, with many firms already exporting to international markets.
The GVA (Gross Value Added) and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) impact are projected to be substantial, especially in the high growth scenario.

5. Regulatory and Permitting Framework

The YERA model and YERDEM support mechanism are the main frameworks for offshore wind project procurement and support.
A comprehensive permitting process is required, which includes environmental, social, and technical assessments.
The report recommends a streamlined permitting process and enhanced regulatory clarity to improve bankability and attract investment.

6. Grid and Port Infrastructure

Grid infrastructure is a key enabler for offshore wind development. Current transmission systems are not fully prepared for large-scale offshore wind integration.
Port infrastructure is critical for vessel operations and component logistics. The report highlights Bandirma, Canakkale, Candarli, and Aliaga as key potential ports.
Gap analysis indicates that some ports require significant upgrades to support offshore wind activities.

7. Environmental and Social Considerations

Offshore wind development may impact protected areas, critical habitats, and marine biodiversity.
The report emphasizes the need for environmental impact assessments (EIA) and marine spatial planning (MSP) to identify and mitigate risks.
Marine traffic, shipping intensity, and no-go zones are important constraints that need to be addressed.

8. Supply Chain Development

Türkiye has a strong onshore wind supply chain and is well-positioned to expand into offshore wind.
The report outlines the supply chain categories, including wind turbine generators (WTGs), balance of plant (BoP), installation and vessels, and operation and maintenance (O&M).
Local manufacturing and component production are encouraged to increase economic benefits and industrial capacity.

9. Stakeholder Engagement

The development of offshore wind requires collaboration with a wide range of public and private stakeholders.
The Turkish Offshore Wind Energy Association (DURED) and other industry players have provided valuable feedback during the consultation process.
The report highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement and public consultation in shaping the roadmap.

Key Recommendations

Stakeholder engagement and marine spatial planning should be prioritized to identify and manage environmental and social constraints.
A streamlined and transparent permitting process is needed to support project development and investment.
Grid infrastructure upgrades and interconnection projects with neighboring countries (e.g., Bulgaria and Greece) are essential for integration and export potential.
Port infrastructure development should be accelerated to support component logistics and vessel operations.
Local content and supply chain development should be promoted to enhance economic benefits and reduce reliance on imports.

Growth Scenarios

Low growth scenario: Assumes limited government support, with ~16 GW of cumulative capacity by 2050, mostly bottom-fixed.
High growth scenario: Assumes strong government support and industry growth, with ~26.8 GW of cumulative capacity by 2050, with a focus on floating projects.

Conclusion

The Offshore Wind Roadmap for Türkiye outlines a strategic pathway for the development of a domestic offshore wind industry that can contribute to decarbonization, energy security, and economic growth. The report highlights the technical, environmental, and economic viability of offshore wind in Türkiye and provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and opportunities associated with its development. It also includes recommendations for policy, regulation, infrastructure, and stakeholder engagement to support the successful implementation of offshore wind projects in Türkiye.