2024-10-20-世界银行-海上风电开发计划_罗马尼亚海上风电路线图（英）_220页_19mb

Offshore Wind Development Program: Roadmap for Romania

Executive Summary

• Offshore wind (OSW) offers Romania a significant opportunity to generate clean, competitively priced electricity.
• Two scenarios (low and high growth) are modeled, targeting 3 GW and 7 GW of capacity by 2035, respectively.
• Key recommendations include policy clarity, streamlined permitting, grid upgrades, and supply chain development.
• Environmental and social impacts must be mitigated through robust planning and stakeholder engagement.

Key Findings

1. Resource Potential:

   • Romania has a medium wind resource, with potential for up to 7 GW of OSW capacity in shallow waters (∼50 km from shore).
   • OSW could meet up to 37% of Romania’s electricity demand by 2035 (high growth scenario).

2. Economic Impact:

   • By 2035, OSW could create 77,000 FTE-years of employment and €5.3 billion in GVA under the high growth scenario.
   • Local content in the supply chain (e.g., towers, monopiles) could grow from 26% (2029) to 35% (2035).

3. Environmental Considerations:

   • OSW avoids 97–230 Mt of CO₂ emissions by 2050 and reduces water consumption significantly.
   • Key risks include avian migration routes, marine habitats, and cumulative impacts, requiring Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEAs).

4. Policy & Infrastructure Needs:

   • Marine Spatial Planning: Early designation of OSW energy areas to minimize conflicts.
   • Transmission Upgrades: Investment required to integrate OSW into the grid (estimated €35 billion by 2035).
   • Port Infrastructure: Modernization of ports like Constanța to support manufacturing and installation.

High-Growth Scenario Highlights

• Capacity: 7 GW by 2035 (4 GW/year average).
• Cost: LCOE reduces from €80/MWh (2029) to €55/MWh (2035).
• Employment: 77,000 FTE-years created (3.7× higher than low growth).
• Hydrogen: Enables storage of excess renewable energy and decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors.

Roadmap Recommendations

1. Governance

   • Establish a Government-Industry Forum for collaboration.
   • Designate OSW energy areas through proportionate MSP and SEA.

2. Policy & Frameworks

   • Introduce investor-friendly OSW law with clear leasing, permitting, and revenue structures.
   • Align frameworks with EU directives (e.g., Environmental & Social Standards).

3. Infrastructure

   • Upgrade transmission networks and ports for export.
   • Develop local supply chains (towers, monopiles) to reduce costs and create jobs.

4. Finance

   • Leverage Modernisation Fund and multilateral lending for early projects.
   • Use green bonds and climate finance to attract investors.

Challenges & Opportunities

• Opportunities: Energy security, job creation, EU funding access.
• Barriers: Permitting delays, grid constraints, and high initial costs.

Call to Action

• Government: Prioritize policy coherence and stakeholder engagement.
• Industry: Invest early in R&D, supply chain, and partnerships.
• Stakeholders: Address environmental concerns and community benefits.

Next Steps

• Conduct detailed environmental and social impact assessments.
• Secure funding commitments from international partners.
• Implement recommendations by 2024 to accelerate project deployment.

Key Stakeholder Responsibilities:

• Government: Policy, permitting, transmission planning.
• Developers: Exploration, project development, revenue auctions.
• Supply Chain: Local manufacturing (towers, foundations), port upgrades.
• International Bodies: MDBs (World Bank, EBRD) for finance guarantees.

This roadmap balances ambition with pragmatism, offering a pathway for Romania to harness its offshore wind potential while addressing risks.