2018全球电动汽车展望（英文）-2030年规模破万亿-2018.06-141页-6mb

Global EV Outlook 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global EV Outlook 2018 provides an in-depth analysis of the current status and future outlook of electric vehicles (EVs) globally. It outlines the role of EVs in achieving energy efficiency, reducing emissions, and supporting sustainable transport systems. The report also highlights the importance of policy, infrastructure, and battery technology in driving the adoption of EVs.

Main Areas of Focus

1. Electric Vehicles (EVs)

• Sales and Stock Growth: In 2017, global new electric car sales surpassed 1 million units, marking a 54% increase compared to 2016. Norway had the highest market share at 39%, followed by Iceland (11.7%) and Sweden (6.3%). China was the largest market for electric cars, accounting for 40% of the global stock.
• Market Drivers: Policies, environmental concerns, and cost reductions are the primary drivers of EV adoption. The electrification of two-wheelers and buses is also growing rapidly, with China leading in both categories.
• Policy Updates: China and California have strong EV mandates, while the EU introduced a 2030 CO₂ emissions standard. India and other countries have also announced electrification targets, signaling a global shift.

2. Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE)

• Charging Infrastructure: Private chargers at homes and workplaces are the most common, with over 3 million units globally in 2017. Publicly accessible chargers are growing, with over 320,000 slow chargers and 110,000 fast chargers worldwide.
• Charging Standards: The report discusses the development of charging standards and their implementation across different vehicle types and regions. It emphasizes the importance of fast chargers in urban areas due to space constraints.
• Private Sector Involvement: Major automakers, utilities, and energy companies are forming alliances to support EVSE development, with public funding potentially being phased out in favor of self-sustaining models.

3. Energy Demand and Emissions

• Energy Impact: EVs contribute to reduced oil demand and lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2017, EVs avoided 38 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions globally.
• Grid Implications: The integration of EVs into the power grid requires careful planning to ensure stability and efficiency. The report highlights the potential of EVs to support the use of renewable energy sources.

4. Battery Technology and Cost Reductions

• Current Status: Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are the dominant technology, with significant cost reductions and performance improvements over the years.
• Cost Drivers: Battery chemistry, energy storage capacity, manufacturing scale, and charging speed are key factors influencing battery cost and performance.
• Future Prospects: Post-Li-ion technologies are emerging, but their readiness is still low. Continued investment in large-scale battery production is expected to drive further cost reductions.

5. Outlook to 2030

• Scenarios: The report outlines two main scenarios: the New Policies Scenario and the EV30@30 Scenario.
• EV Stock: Under the EV30@30 Scenario, EV stock is projected to reach 228 million units (excluding two- and three-wheelers) by 2030, up from 125 million in the New Policies Scenario.
• Battery Demand: Battery demand is expected to increase significantly, with cobalt and lithium demand reaching 10 and 25 times their current levels, respectively, by 2030. This highlights the need for stable supply chains and sustainable mining practices.

Key Policy Considerations

• Supporting EV Uptake: Policies must be designed to create a conducive environment for EV adoption, including public procurement, tax incentives, and access restrictions.
• Charging Infrastructure: Ensuring sufficient and accessible charging infrastructure is crucial. The EU recommends a 1:10 ratio of publicly accessible chargers to electric cars, but Norway already has a 1:19 ratio.
• Grid Integration: EVs can be integrated into the power grid through smart charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies. This integration can support the use of variable renewable energy sources.
• Material Management: The increased demand for materials like cobalt and lithium requires careful management to avoid supply chain risks. Recycling and sustainable practices are also essential to reduce environmental impact.

Key Information and Statistics

• China's Dominance: China is the largest market for electric vehicles, both in terms of sales and stock. It accounts for over 99% of electric bus and two-wheeler stocks.
• Norway's Leadership: Norway leads in EV adoption with the highest market share (39%) and the lowest ratio of chargers to vehicles (1:19).
• EVSE Development: The number of private and public chargers is expected to grow significantly, with private chargers outnumbering electric LDVs by 10% by 2030.
• Battery Cost Trends: Battery prices are expected to continue falling, making EVs more cost-competitive, especially for fleets with high usage.

Conclusion

The Global EV Outlook 2018 outlines the rapid growth of EV adoption, driven by policy, cost reductions, and technological advancements. It emphasizes the need for coordinated efforts in infrastructure development, material supply chain management, and grid integration to ensure a sustainable and effective transition to electric mobility. The report also highlights the importance of policy flexibility and adaptability to support long-term goals and address emerging challenges.