非金属新材料行业玻璃基板1：从有机到无机，不断延续摩尔定律-240615-天风证券-14页_1mb

Industry Report Analysis: Non-Metallic New Materials

1. Glass Substrates: From Organic to Inorganic, Driving Moore's Law

Glass substrates are emerging as a key material in semiconductor packaging and optics. Their low thermal expansion coefficient (CTE) and zero humidity coefficient make them ideal for advanced packaging applications where thermal stress and reliability are critical. Glass substrates can replace traditional organic or silicon-based materials in multi-chip systems, offering better performance and integration capabilities.

Key applications include:

• Advanced Packaging Carriers: Reduce warping caused by CTE mismatch and support higher-speed interconnects.
• Wafer-Level Optics: Enable thinner, lighter optical components for devices like AR/VR.
• Augmented Reality (AR): Glass substrates' similar processing capabilities to semiconductors enhance AR experiences.

2. Advanced Packaging: Glass vs. Organic Substrates

Intel predicts that glass substrates will replace organic substrates in processors by 2030, enabling higher-density chip integration and reduced thermal stress. Glass substrates can accommodate up to 50% more chips compared to organic ones due to their superior mechanical and thermal properties. This shift is driven by the need for higher performance in AI accelerators, servers, and other high-end applications.

3. Technical Challenges and Solutions

• TGV Technology: Through-sierra via holes (TGV) enable vertical interconnects with minimal signal loss. Advanced laser and etching techniques create high-aspect-ratio holes.
• Thermal Stress and Warping: Glass substrates, while dimensionally stable, can warp under thermal stress. Solutions include optimized material selection and manufacturing processes.

4. Market Outlook

• By 2026, the global IC packaging substrate market is projected to reach $21.4 billion, with glass substrates capturing 30% of the market by 2026. By 2029, this could rise to 50%.
• Applications in Mini/MicroLED backlights and displays are expanding, offering additional revenue streams.

5. Key Players and Investment Opportunities

• Woge Optoelectronics: Leading in TGV technology with applications in Mini/MicroLED and semiconductor packaging. Challenges include historical net losses due to R&D investment.
• China AIM Glass Technology (Kaisheng Tech): Integrated supply chain from materials to display components. Strong position in LED and glass substrate markets.
• Rayman Optoelectronics: Focus on glass-based MicroLED displays and COB technology, though it is currently focused on scaling operations.
• Rusglass: Emerging player, expanding its glass product range for advanced packaging.

6. Risks

• Market Acceptance: Encounters new market barriers, slowing adoption.
• Intense R&D Competition: Competitors may enter the market, intensifying competition.
• Price Volatility: Prices could fall as production scales up due to high initial costs in early commercialization.

Summary

Glass substrates represent a paradigm shift in semiconductor packaging and optics. The market is poised for significant growth, but challenges remain in manufacturing and adoption. Leading companies like Woge Optoelectronics and Kaisheng Tech are driving innovation, with substantial potential returns for early investors.