20160108-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Document Content

Core Content

The document contains a mix of financial insights and market analysis, covering several sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, including technology, consumer goods, and industrial sectors. It also includes information about the Tongda Group, a Chinese casing manufacturer, and its relationship with major smartphone brands such as Huawei and Letv. Additionally, it provides an overview of the CES 2016 event, highlighting the trend of metal casing as a key feature in smartphones and its potential impact on Tongda's business.

Main Points and Key Information

Tongda Group and CES 2016

Tongda Group (698 HK) is a leading provider of metal casings in China.
At CES 2016, Huawei and Letv introduced four new models with aluminium bodies, signaling a trend for metal casing to become a must-have smartphone feature in 2016.
Tongda is the main supplier for several Huawei models, including the Mate 7, P8 Max, GX8, and MediaPad M2, contributing to 24% of its 9M15 sales.
Tongda's FY9M15 revenue grew by 31% YoY to HK$4,300 million, driven by sales to Huawei (24%) and Xiaomi (18%).
Tongda's P/E ratio for FY16E is 8.2x, which is 22% higher than its peers (6.7x), attributed to higher ROE (21%) and a better product mix (lower exposure to PC casings).

Hong Kong Equity Market Strategy

The Hong Kong market is advised to stay defensive with light holdings due to uncertainty and volatility.
The RMB stabilization is a prerequisite for the market to bottom.
The RMB exchange rate was volatile, with a 1,400-point difference between onshore and offshore rates as of Jan 6, 2016.
Short-term measures such as the Caixin PMI and RRR policy have limited the market's upside potential.
The circuit-breaker mechanism in the mainland market exacerbated volatility in the Hong Kong market.
The HK market could fall to 20368 in the first quarter of 2016, and the investment recommendation is to keep holdings or bargain hunt in property, new energy, consumer staples, and infrastructure sectors.
SOE reform and overseas China concept stocks returning to A shares are recommended for early deployment.
TMT (Technology, Media & Telecom), high-end manufacturing, healthcare, environmental protection, education, and tourism sectors are highlighted for leadership selection.

Research Highlights on A-shares

Steel Industry

Steel prices showed mild gains in the middle ten days of December 2015, with rebounding market confidence.
Crude steel output dropped 0.2% to 1.57 million tons in the middle ten days, while sales volume increased.
Inventories rose 2.32% to 14.67 million tons, equivalent to 9.3 days of output.
Subsectors with positive outlook include nuclear power, new energy vehicles, and high-temperature alloys.
Key picks include Wuhan Iron & Steel (600005) for potential rally, and Jiuli (002318), Yongxing (002756), and Yingliu (603308) for nuclear power beneficiaries.

Other Sectors

Auto & Auto Parts: Companies like Brilliance China (1114 HK), Geely (175 HK), and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) are recommended with BUY ratings.
Oil and Gas: Petrochina (857 HK) and CNOOC (883 HK) are BUY rated, with positive earnings growth.
Property: China Resources Land (1109 HK), Yuzhou Property (1628 HK), and China Overseas Land (688 HK) are BUY rated.
Technology, Media & Telecom: Tencent (700 HK), NetDragon (777 HK), and China Unicom (762 HK) are BUY rated.
Pharmaceutical & Healthcare: 3SBio (1530 HK), TRAD CHI MED (570 HK), and China Medical System (867 HK) are BUY rated.
Banking: ICBC (1398 HK), BOC (3988 HK), and China Construction Bank (939 HK) are BUY rated.
Insurance: AIA (1299 HK), NCI (1336 HK), and Ping An (2318 HK) are BUY rated.
Environmental Protection: Technovator (1206 HK) is BUY rated.
Construction: China State Construction (3311 HK) is BUY rated.

What to Watch

Economic Data

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Forecasted at 200k for Jan 8, 2015.
China PPI YY: Forecasted at -5.9% for Jan 10, 2015.
China CPI YY: Forecasted at 1.5% for Jan 10, 2015.
New Yuan Loans: Forecasted at CNY708.9 billion for Jan 10, 2015.

Company Events

Netel Technology (Holdings) Ltd. (8256 HK): Released interim results/dividends for 6-month period ended 30/11/15.

Conclusion

The document highlights the growing adoption of metal casing in the smartphone industry, particularly among Chinese brands, and the positive implications for Tongda Group. It also provides investment recommendations for the Hong Kong equity market, advising defensive strategies with light holdings, while focusing on sectors with lower valuations and growth potential. The A-share research highlights offer sector-specific insights, emphasizing BUY ratings for several key players across various industries.