2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Kyrgyz_Republic_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Three_102页_1mb

Summary of the Kyrgyz Republic's Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the fifth review under the Three-Year Arrangement of the Kyrgyz Republic's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the request for modification of performance criteria. It includes the staff report, staff statement, informational annex, press release, and the statement by the Executive Director, all of which provide an overview of the country's economic developments, policy discussions, and medium-term outlook.

Key Documents

• Staff Report: Completed on November 15, 2013, based on discussions with Kyrgyz officials from September 18 to October 2, 2013.
• Staff Statement: Issued on December 4, 2013, summarizing the IMF staff's views.
• Press Release: Outlines the Executive Board's conclusions from the December 4, 2013 discussion.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Provides the official stance of the IMF on the Kyrgyz Republic's economic situation.

Main Points and Key Information

A. Context

• The current coalition government has maintained a stable political environment, though challenges remain, particularly related to the Kumtor gold mine dispute.
• The government and Centerra signed an MOU in mid-September 2013, which was subject to further parliamentary negotiations.
• The Kyrgyz parliament approved the legislation to close the Manas Transit Center in July 2014.

B. Recent Developments

• The economy recovered strongly in 2013, with growth reaching 9.2 percent year-on-year in the first nine months.
• Inflation dropped to 6 percent in September, and core inflation remained in single digits.
• The current account deteriorated due to increased imports, especially from public investment programs and FDI.
• The government received a budget support grant from Russia in early July 2013, which offset the impact of lower gold prices.

C. Program Implementation

• The program was broadly on track, with all quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and all but one indicative targets met by end-June 2013.
• A new tax policy department was established in the Ministry of Finance.
• The resolution requiring SOEs to report financial and borrowing plans was issued in June 2013.
• The Banking Code was submitted to parliament in September 2013.
• The structural benchmark for expanding the commitment register to include local budgets was not met by end-September 2013 due to delays, and is now a prior action.

D. Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

• Despite a decline in gold prices, the medium-term outlook remains favorable, with growth expected to stabilize at 5 percent.
• The fiscal deficit is projected at 4.1 percent in 2014, down from 4.0 percent at the fourth review, and is expected to narrow to 2.3 percent by 2016.
• The current account deficit is expected to widen to 15.7 percent of GDP in 2014 but gradually decline over the medium term.
• Risks include political turmoil, lower gold prices, and external shocks from Russia and Kazakhstan. The feasibility study for the Kambarata hydropower project is expected to be finalized by year-end, which could impact fiscal sustainability.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The deficit target for 2013 remains achievable despite lower gold prices.
• Total revenues and grants are expected to decrease slightly in 2013, while expenditures are in line with the program.
• The authorities are continuing to streamline nonpriority spending while preserving social spending and increasing capital outlays.
• Tax revenues are expected to improve marginally, but non-tax revenues are expected to decline due to the closure of the Manas Transit Center and lower gold prices.

B. Monetary Policy

• The NBKR maintained a tight monetary policy stance in the first nine months of 2013.
• Reserve money growth declined from 22 percent in January to 14.6 percent in September.
• The NBKR increased sterilization efforts but missed some indicative targets.
• The NBKR intervened in the foreign exchange market only once to stabilize the som.

C. Financial Sector Policies

• The banking sector remains stable and well-capitalized, but credit growth has been strong.
• The NPL ratio continues to decline, but is higher for small banks.
• The usury law, which caps interest rates at 15 percent above the weighted average, may reduce competition and access to credit, especially in remote areas.

D. Structural Policies

• The authorities are working on improving the commitment register and other structural reforms.
• The new owner of Zalkar Bank (Renamed Rosinbank) has paid the first installment of recapitalization and plans to expand services.

Key Tables and Boxes

Text Table 1: Financial Soundness Indicators, 2010-13

• Capital adequacy and liquidity ratios have declined but remain above thresholds.
• NPL ratio has decreased over the period.

Text Table 2: Interest Rates of Banks and MFIs

• Interest rates for loans in KGS are higher for MFIs than for banks.

Text Table 3: Medium-Term Outlook, 2011-18

• Real GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 5 percent.
• Current account deficit is expected to decline gradually over the medium term.
• Gross reserves are expected to remain adequate.

Box 1: Spillovers from Russia

• Russia's slowdown affects Kyrgyz Republic through remittances and trade.
• The correlation between Kyrgyz and Russian growth has weakened due to domestic factors.
• Imports from Russia account for 34 percent of total imports, with fuel being a significant nonelastic import.

Box 2: Infrastructure Projects Over 2013-17

• The Kyrgyz Republic is undertaking a major public investment program (PIP), mostly funded by China.
• PIP loans are estimated at US $1,326 million, with 60 percent from China.
• The Kambarata hydropower project is expected to be one of the largest in the world, generating 2,000 MW.

Box 3: 2013 FSAP Update Recommendations

• The FSAP update recommends strengthening financial sector regulation and oversight.
• It highlights the need for improved transparency and accountability in the financial system.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic's economic performance in 2013 showed strong recovery, driven by the gold sector and other industries. The government is on track with its program, but faces challenges from lower gold prices, political instability, and external shocks. The medium-term outlook remains positive, with growth projected to stabilize and fiscal consolidation progressing. The country's financial sector is relatively stable, but the usury law may pose challenges to credit access. The implementation of structural reforms and the management of public investment programs are critical for long-term economic stability.