世界黄金协会-黄金需求趋势（2021年第一季度）（英文）-2021.4-19页_1mb

Gold Demand Trends Summary - Q1 2021

Core Content

Q1 2021 saw global gold demand at 815.7 tonnes, virtually on par with Q4 2020, but down 23% compared to Q1 2020. The demand was driven by strong consumer and retail investment activity, which offset the significant outflows from gold-backed ETFs.

Main Highlights

• Global Gold ETF Holdings: Fell by 177.9 tonnes (US$9.5bn) due to higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar.
• US Dollar Gold Price: Declined by 10% during Q1, influenced by rising US rates and ETF outflows.
• Consumer Demand: Increased for the third consecutive quarter, reaching 339.5t, the highest since Q4 2016.
• Jewellery Demand: Rose 52% y-o-y to 477.4t, but remained 6% below the five-year quarterly average of 505.9t.
• Central Bank Purchases: Global central bank gold reserves increased by 95.5t, with Hungary's purchase of 63t being the largest.
• Gold Supply: Fell 4% y-o-y, mainly due to a drop in recycling, despite mine production growth.

Key Market Insights

China

• Jewellery Demand: Reached 191.1t, the highest since 2015, driven by a strong economy, lower gold prices, and festival-related buying.
• Investment Demand: Bar and coin investment hit 86t, a 133% y-o-y increase, supported by the Chinese New Year (CNY) and improved economic conditions.
• Gold Price Spread: The Shanghai-London gold price spread turned positive, indicating strong local demand.

India

• Jewellery Demand: Increased 39% y-o-y to 102.5t, with wedding-related purchases and lower gold prices playing a key role.
• Investment Demand: Bar and coin investment rose 34% y-o-y to 37.5t, fueled by reduced import duty and a weaker rupee.
• Gold Price: Local gold prices dropped 14% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q, making gold more affordable and encouraging retail buying.

United States

• Investment Demand: Bar and coin investment surged 77% y-o-y to 26.3t, the strongest since Q2 2016.
• ETF Outflows: US funds were the main source of ETF outflows, with a total loss of 145.4t.
• Eagle Coin Sales: Very strong, indicating sustained retail interest in gold.

Europe

• ETF Outflows: European funds saw a loss of 51.7t, with the UK and Switzerland accounting for most of the outflows.
• Investment Demand: Bar and coin investment reached 65t, 35% above the five-year quarterly average.

Middle East and Turkey

• Turkey: Jewellery demand increased 5% y-o-y to 9t, while bar and coin investment jumped to 44.3t, almost double that of Q1 2020.
• Middle East: Mixed performance, with some markets showing strong growth due to lower gold prices and a return of tourism, while Iran saw a 30% y-o-y drop in demand.

Other Asia

• Japan and South Korea: Both saw increased investment demand, with Japan at 5.4t and South Korea at 5.8t.
• Vietnam: Investment demand rose 10% y-o-y to 13.5t, the highest in over four years.

Central Bank Activity

• Net Purchases: Central banks bought a net total of 95.5t, with Hungary being the largest buyer (63t) and Turkey the largest seller (31.5t).
• Trend: Despite a 23% y-o-y decline, the quarter saw a 20% q-o-q increase in central bank net purchases, consistent with activity seen between 2016 and 2017.
• Key Buyers: India (18.7t), Kazakhstan (8t), and Uzbekistan (23.3t) were notable buyers.

Outlook

• China: Q2 is traditionally a low season for gold jewellery, but may see support from the longer International Labour Day holiday and rescheduled weddings.
• India: Uncertain outlook due to potential new lockdowns, but digital retail strategies may help mitigate the impact.
• ETFs: Continued outflows are expected as interest rates and the US dollar remain strong, though retail investment in bars and coins is showing resilience.
• Gold Price: The price decline may encourage more bargain-hunting, particularly in China and India.

Summary Table

Notes

• Data as of 31 March 2021.
• Y-o-y changes are relative to Q1 2020.
• Q1 is traditionally a weak quarter for gold jewellery, but the decline was smaller than usual due to pent-up demand and lower prices.
• Gold investment in Q1 was influenced by inflation expectations and the opportunity to buy at lower prices.