20250603-中泰国际证券-中国房地产周报_整体摇摆不定_但一线城市保增长_16页_2mb

Summary of the China Real Estate Market Report for the Week Ending June 1, 2025

The report highlights the volatility and mixed performance of the Chinese real estate market. Overall sales and land transactions showed year-over-year declines, but first-line cities maintained growth, indicating regional disparities. New home sales in 30 major cities fell 120% YoY, with first-line cities rising 104%, while second and third-tier cities saw significant drops. Cumulative data shows improvements in some first-line cities like Shanghai, but declines in others.

Land成交量 continued to decline, with 100 cities experiencing a 469% YoY drop in land sales. Policies, such as Shenzhen's proposed ban on converting subsidized housing to commercial use, were noted as key developments.

Stock performance saw Chinese real estate stocks, particularly state-owned enterprises like China Overseas Development and Shenzhen Holdings, outperforming the broader market. Price trends indicate a 26% YoY increase in average house prices across 100 cities, with first-line cities seeing stronger gains at 62% YoY but slower growth or declines in other regions.

The market remains cautious, with risks including policy changes, interest rate fluctuations, project delays, and financing challenges. First-line cities are recommended as a focus for investment, alongside low valuation targets.

Key economic indicators include a higher新开工/竣工 area ratio in April and a slight decline in the contribution of the real estate sector to GDP.