【世界银行】加蓬经济更新：为可持续林业制定财政政策-2024_66页_3mb

Gabon Economic Update 2024 Summary

Core Content

The Gabon Economic Update 2024 is a World Bank publication that analyzes recent economic trends and presents a special topic on fiscal policies for sustainable forestry. It outlines the macroeconomic context, challenges, and opportunities for Gabon's future growth, emphasizing the need for reforms to improve fiscal sustainability, public finances, and environmental outcomes.

Main Economic Trends and Outlook

1. Economic Growth

• Gabon's growth slowed in 2023 to 2.3%, down from 3.0% in 2022.
• The slowdown was driven by lower global demand, transport disruptions (especially in wood and manganese industries), and higher fuel costs.
• The oil sector remained a key growth driver, with output increasing by 3.7% in 2023 due to high global oil prices and new oilfield exploitation.
• Other contributing sectors included agriculture, construction, and services.

2. Inflation and Poverty

• Inflationary pressures eased in 2023 to 2.2% (y-o-y), down from 5.8% in late 2022, due to monetary policy tightening, price controls, and global inflation decline.
• Despite this, poverty remained high, with 35.2% of households living below USD 6.85 per day in 2023.
• Unemployment stood at 20%, and youth disengagement was significant, with one-third of the youth not participating in work, education, or training.

3. Fiscal Revenues and Public Spending

• Fiscal revenues reached a record high in 2023 at 22.9% of GDP, driven by strong oil production and enhanced tax collection.
• Public spending increased significantly, reaching 23.9% of GDP, and the fiscal deficit rose to 1.0% of GDP.
• Public investment surged by 76.6%, mainly due to infrastructure projects and social measures.
• Spending on education and health remained low, at 1.6% and 1.0% of GDP, respectively, below regional averages.

4. Public Debt

• Public debt surpassed 70% of GDP in 2023, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability.
• Debt increased from 63.6% to 70.5% of GDP between 2022 and 2023, driven by lower growth, higher interest rates, and cash flow management issues.
• External arrears were estimated at CFAF 146 billion (1.2% of GDP), affecting credibility with creditors and potential financing instability.

5. Trade and Exports

• Exports remained highly concentrated, with oil, manganese, and wood accounting for 83% of total exports in 2023.
• Oil alone represented 68% of exports, but its value decreased by 15% due to lower global oil prices.
• Wood and manganese exports were impacted by transport disruptions and weaker Asian demand.
• Gabon primarily exports to Asian markets, especially China, while regional trade is limited due to logistical and regulatory barriers.

Special Topic: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Forestry

1. Importance of Forests

• Gabon is the fourth most forested country globally, with over 91% of its territory covered by well-preserved forests.
• Forests absorb about 140 million tons of CO₂ annually, playing a key role in climate change mitigation.
• The forestry sector contributes to job creation, economic diversification, and climate services.

2. Current Fiscal Instruments

• The main forest-related fiscal revenue sources include property taxes, wood export duties, and land area fees.
• Land area fees are environmentally targeted, with lower rates for certified concessions (FSC or PAFC) and higher rates for uncertified or illegal activities.

3. Fiscal Reforms for Sustainable Forestry

• Calibrating forestry taxes to incentivize sustainable practices.
• Implementing a bonus-malus system, where taxes on non-sustainable production fund benefits for sustainable firms.
• Expanding climate-smart fiscal instruments to support environmental and climate goals while increasing public revenues.

4. Opportunities for Reform

• Differentiating tax policies based on certification levels to encourage sustainable production.
• Rationalizing tax expenditures in agriculture to target environmentally friendly practices.
• Reforming the forestry code through inclusive and participatory processes.
• Promoting digital services for forest permits, verification, and payment transparency.
• Engaging local communities in REDD+ projects to benefit directly from carbon sequestration and secure performance-based funding.
• Fostering international partnerships to secure climate finance and technical assistance.

Key Challenges

• Illegal logging remains a challenge despite strong conservation policies.
• Limited access to credit for private firms hampers economic growth.
• High energy and transport costs impact export competitiveness.
• Low regional integration and logistical barriers limit regional trade benefits.
• Fiscal transparency and public finance management require improvement.

Conclusion

Gabon's economic recovery is modest and vulnerable to global risks such as geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs, and potential Chinese economic slowdown. To sustain growth and improve living conditions, fiscal reforms must be implemented to optimize forest resources, promote sustainable practices, and enhance public revenues. The forestry sector, while currently a minor contributor to public finances, has significant potential to support diversification, generate jobs, and contribute to climate goals. Strengthening fiscal policy with environmental considerations is crucial for long-term development and resource sustainability.