【世界银行】刚果共和国经济更新，第11版：为可持续林业和经济增长设计财政工具-2024_63页_5mb

Republic of Congo Economic Update, 11th Edition: August 2024

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the Republic of Congo (ROC) economic developments and outlines fiscal instruments for sustainable forestry and economic growth.

Main Points

1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• Global and Regional Growth Slowdown:
  Global economic growth slowed to 2.6% in 2023 from 3.0% in 2022, while Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) growth also decelerated to 2.6% in 2023, down from 3.6% in 2022.
  CEMAC countries experienced a slowdown in growth, with 2.0% in 2023 compared to 3.1% in 2022. This was lower than the WAEMU region's growth and the SSA average.
  Equatorial Guinea and Gabon had negative growth in 2023 due to reduced hydrocarbon and mineral production, and high fuel costs.

• ROC Economic Recovery:
  The ROC economy is gradually recovering, with GDP growth estimated at 1.9% in 2023, slightly higher than 2022 but still below projections.
  Non-oil sector growth contributed significantly, reaching 2.8% in 2023, while the oil sector underperformed, declining for the fourth consecutive year.
  Inflation rose to 4.3% in 2023, driven by fuel price adjustments and increased domestic demand, exacerbating socio-economic challenges.
  Pro-poor social spending fell to 2.5% of GDP in 2023, with an execution rate of only 41%, undermining efforts to alleviate poverty.

• Fiscal and External Balances:
  Fiscal balances remained in surplus in 2023, supported by rising non-oil revenues and reform of fuel subsidies.
  The budget surplus was estimated at 3.6% of GDP, but the current account surplus narrowed to 2.1% of GDP due to lower oil exports and higher import costs.
  Public debt increased to 96% of GDP at the end of 2023, with domestic debt rising sharply. Despite some progress, ROC's debt is still classified as in distress.

• Economic Outlook for 2024-2026:
  GDP growth is expected to average 3.4% in 2025-2026, driven mainly by non-oil sector expansion.
  Inflation is projected to return to the BEAC target in the medium term.
  The current account surplus is expected to narrow and turn into a temporary deficit by 2026.
  Budget balance is projected to remain positive, with non-oil revenues offsetting lower oil revenues.
  Debt management and fiscal sustainability remain critical challenges, especially as oil production is expected to decline permanently from 2026.

2. Designing Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Forestry and Economic Growth

• Congo Basin's Role:
  The Congo Basin contains the second-largest tropical forest, a key carbon sink and economic asset for Basin countries.
  The ROC is a custodian of this forest, which covers two-thirds of its territory and continues to act as a carbon sink.
  The country has committed to reducing CO₂ emissions by 32% by 2030, which is estimated to cost US$8.2 billion.

• Forestry Sector Contribution:
  The forestry sector contributes modestly to GDP but is vital for employment and livelihoods.
  Until the 2023 log export ban, exports were mainly raw logs with limited value added.
  Asia, particularly China, was the main export market, accounting for over two-thirds of exports.

• Challenges and Reforms:
  Illegal logging and deforestation remain significant threats.
  The ROC has implemented reforms such as a new forest code (2020), a national forest certification system (PAFC-Congo), and agreements with the EU to combat illegal logging.
  The 2023 CEMAC log export ban aims to increase value added in the wood industry and align with global sustainable forest management efforts.

• Fiscal Instruments for Sustainability:
  Current fiscal instruments include logging licensing, area fees, stumpage yield taxes, and export taxes.
  The report proposes climate-smart fiscal reforms, such as a 'bonus-malus' system that taxes non-sustainable production to fund tax benefits for sustainable practices.
  Aligning tax rates with sustainable production methods is critical for encouraging responsible forestry.

• Future Directions:
  Fiscal reforms must be aligned with local capacity and stakeholder preferences.
  Complementary policies are needed to support sustainability, including strengthening governance and transparency.
  The ROC needs to diversify the economy and avoid over-reliance on oil to sustain long-term growth.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: 1.9% in 2023, 3.5% in 2024, and an average of 3.4% in 2025-2026.
• Fiscal Surplus: 3.6% of GDP in 2023.
• Current Account Surplus: 2.1% of GDP in 2023.
• Public Debt: 96% of GDP at the end of 2023, still classified as in distress.
• CO₂ Emissions Reduction Target: 32% by 2030, requiring US$8.2 billion in investment.
• Log Export Ban: Implemented in July 2023 to promote local processing and value addition.
• Fiscal Instruments: Include logging licensing, area fees, stumpage yield taxes, and corporate income taxes.
• 'Bonus-Malus' System: A proposed fiscal tool that taxes non-sustainable practices to fund tax benefits for sustainable ones.
• Regional Cooperation: CEMAC countries are working together to promote sustainable forestry, with the log export ban as a key measure.

Conclusion

The ROC faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with forest sustainability. While the economy is gradually recovering, it remains vulnerable to external shocks and non-performing loans. Fiscal instruments must be reformed to align with sustainable practices and support long-term economic diversification. International and regional cooperation, along with improved governance and transparency, are essential to achieving these goals.