【世界银行】赤道几内亚经济更新，第2版：为可持续林业设计财政工具-2024_64页_4mb

Equatorial Guinea Economic Update 2024: Designing Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Forestry

Core Content

The Equatorial Guinea Economic Update 2024 (2nd Edition) focuses on the role of fiscal policy in promoting sustainable forestry. It provides an overview of recent economic developments, the medium-term outlook, and structural challenges, followed by a detailed analysis of fiscal instruments that can support sustainable forest management.

Main Objectives

• Strengthen the analytical basis for policy dialogue.
• Contribute to informed debates on fiscal reforms to enhance macroeconomic management and development outcomes.

Key Economic Developments (2023)

• Economic Recession: Equatorial Guinea reentered recession in 2023, with GDP growth estimated at -5.7% compared to 3.7% in 2022 and 0.9% in 2021.
• Hydrocarbon Sector Decline: Oil and gas production fell by 21.7% and 13.5%, respectively, due to incidents at Zafiro and FPSO Serpentina, and maturing fields.
• Fiscal Deterioration: Commodity revenues declined, leading to a decrease in the fiscal surplus from 11.6% to 2.6% of GDP. The non-oil fiscal deficit widened to 16.4%.
• Public Debt: Public debt decreased as a share of GDP, remaining sustainable, but government spending increased to 19.8% of GDP.
• Current Account: Surplus decreased due to lower export earnings.
• Inflation: Reduced to 2.4% in 2023, below the regional target of 3.0%, due to monetary tightening and import adjustments.
• Credit to Private Sector: Declined by 25.9% in end-December 2023, driven by monetary tightening and banking vulnerabilities.
• Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Remained high at 32% of total loans despite restructuring of CCEI Bank.

Economic Outlook (2024–2026)

• Recession Projection: The economy is expected to remain in recession over the medium-term.
• Risks: Downside risks include further decline in hydrocarbon production, tighter global financial conditions, reduced demand from export partners, and increased trade disruptions.
• Need for Diversification: Structural reforms are necessary to shift from an oil-dependent model to a more diversified and sustainable economy.

Structural Challenges

• Heavy reliance on hydrocarbons.
• Weak governance and institutional capacity.
• Challenging business environment.
• Low human capital and infrastructure gaps.
• Banking sector vulnerabilities.

Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Forestry

The report highlights the importance of integrating fiscal policy with environmental goals, particularly in the forestry sector. It outlines several instruments and reform options:

Current Instruments

• Recurrent Annual Charges
• Logging Licensing and Auctioning of Forest Concessions
• Output Taxes (Royalties and Stumpage Yield Taxes)
• Business Income Taxes
• Tax Expenditures for Agriculture and VAT Exemptions for Farm Inputs

Proposed Reforms

• Adjust Forest Tax Rates: Align tax rates with the ecological footprint of timber production methods.
• Bonus-Malus System: Implement a tax system where non-sustainable practices are taxed more than sustainable ones.
• Rationalize Tax Expenditures: Improve targeting and alignment with environmental goals.
• Promote Forest Certification: Encourage certification to facilitate access to international markets and finance.
• Digital Services for Forestry: Use digital tools for permit attribution, verification, and payment processes to increase efficiency and transparency.
• Expand REDD+ Initiatives: Strengthen carbon sequestration and community livelihoods through REDD+.
• Legal Reforms: Improve forest governance and law enforcement.
• International Partnerships: Secure funding for conservation and climate resilience projects.
• Agroforestry: Promote sustainable land use practices to reduce pressure on forests.
• Community Engagement: Encourage participatory forest management to ensure long-term sustainability.

Regional and International Context

• CEMAC Log Export Ban: A proposed policy to promote local processing, initially set for 2022 but postponed to 2028 due to readiness concerns.
• EU Deforestation-Free Products Law: A potential regulatory tool to promote sustainable forest management in the region.
• International Funding Gaps: While funding for sustainable forest management in the Congo Basin has increased, it remains insufficient and lacks transparency and quantifiable targets.

Conclusion

Fiscal reforms are critical for achieving sustainable forest management and enhancing public revenues. The integration of climate-smart fiscal instruments can support environmental goals while promoting economic diversification and job creation. These reforms must be part of a broader policy mix that includes governance improvements, legal reforms, and international cooperation. The development of a robust local timber processing industry is also emphasized as a key step in increasing value addition and reducing deforestation.