【世界银行】加纳公共财政评论：为弹性和公平的财政政策奠定基础第1卷-概述_50页_2mb

Ghana Public Finance Review: Building the Foundations for a Resilient and Equitable Fiscal Policy

Core Content

The Ghana Public Finance Review is a comprehensive analysis of the country's fiscal policy, focusing on its efficiency, equity, and impact on development. The report highlights the need for long-term structural reforms to address current and future challenges and to build a resilient and equitable fiscal policy. It outlines key issues such as debt accumulation, revenue mobilization, public expenditure inefficiency, and public financial management (PFM) weaknesses, while offering policy recommendations to improve fiscal sustainability and inclusiveness.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Ghana's Economic and Fiscal Vulnerability

• GDP Growth and Debt Accumulation: Ghana has experienced rapid GDP growth, driven largely by oil production, but this has come at the cost of increasing debt accumulation and macroeconomic imbalances.
• Poverty and Inclusive Growth: Despite past success in reducing poverty, recent global shocks have reversed progress, pushing poverty rates upward. The country needs to foster inclusive productivity growth and create more and better jobs.
• Climate Vulnerability: Ghana's growth path is increasingly vulnerable to climate change and related shocks, necessitating fiscal policies that promote macroeconomic stability and sustainable development.
• Fiscal Imbalances: The fiscal deficit increased significantly during the 2020–2022 period, reaching 14.7% of GDP in 2020, with public debt reaching 93% of GDP in 2022. This led to inflationary pressures, loss of access to international capital markets, and reliance on monetary financing.
• Fiscal Stabilization: Ghana has made steady progress toward economic stabilization, including a three-year IMF-supported ECF program in 2023 and debt restructuring efforts. The fiscal position is projected to improve, with a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP from 2025 onward.

2. Domestic Revenue Mobilization (DRM)

• Revenue Performance: Ghana's domestic revenue mobilization has declined in recent years, with revenue as a share of GDP dropping from 15.7% in 2017 to 13% in 2021.
• Tax Exemptions and Complexity: Tax exemptions and complex systems in PIT and VAT have hindered compliance and revenue collection.
• Key Tax Revenues:
  • VAT accounts for 17% of total tax revenues in 2021, below the SSA average.
  • PIT accounts for 15% of total tax revenues, with exemptions for cocoa farmers and pension contributions significantly reducing tax base and revenue.
  • Excise duties account for 1.8% of GDP, below the SSA average and low-income countries.
  • Corporate Income Tax (CIT) has improved but still lags behind regional and structural peers.
• Fiscal Cost of Exemptions: The fiscal cost of tax expenditures is estimated at 3.9% of GDP, with VAT exemptions being the largest contributor at 1.9% of GDP.

3. Public Expenditure Inefficiency

• Spending Growth and Composition: Public expenditure in Ghana nearly doubled between 2010 and 2022, surpassing economic growth. The largest share is spent on public sector wages, interest payments, and earmarked transfers.
• Spending Volatility: Spending has been volatile, with budget overruns particularly in the wage bill and energy sector.
• Interest Payments: Interest payments on domestic and external debt have crowded out capital expenditures, which are lower than regional averages.
• Infrastructure and Social Development: Insufficient investment in infrastructure and social development has led to bottlenecks, such as depreciated power assets and limited road connectivity.
• PFM Challenges: Weak PFM systems have undermined fiscal policy effectiveness, leading to inefficiencies and unpredictable spending.

4. Policy Recommendations

• Fiscal Rules and Institutions: The report suggests the need for fiscal rules and institutions to curb spending pro-cyclicality and strengthen debt sustainability.
• Debt Restructuring and Management: A medium-term debt strategy (MTDS) and debt sustainability analysis (DSA) should be implemented to manage debt risks.
• Tax Reform: Reforms should focus on rationalizing tax expenditures, improving tax compliance, and reducing distortions.
• Public Investment Management (PIM): Systemic improvements in PIM are needed to enhance capital spending and infrastructure development.
• Social Protection and Human Development: Human development spending must increase, but with pro-poor allocation across subsectors and programs.
• Agricultural Support: More efficient and targeted government support is required for agriculture, which is critical for rural livelihoods and export earnings.

Summary of Key Policy Recommendations

Conclusion

The Ghana Public Finance Review emphasizes the importance of shifting from short-term crisis response to long-term structural reforms. It calls for fiscal discipline, improved revenue mobilization, and enhanced public expenditure efficiency to ensure sustainable and equitable development. The report also highlights the need for institutional reforms, better PFM systems, and targeted support for key sectors such as agriculture and social development. These measures are essential to build a resilient fiscal policy framework that can withstand future global shocks and support inclusive growth.