2024-11-10-世界银行-加蓬经济更新_为可持续林业制定财政政策（英）_66页_3mb

Economic Overview and Forestry Fiscal Policies: Summary of Gabon Economic Update 2024

I. Economic Trends and Outlook

Gabon's economic growth slowed in 2023 amid global demand decreases and transport disruptions. GDP growth dropped to 2.3% (down from 3.0% in 2022), impacting the wood and manganese sectors. Despite this, oil production increased due to new fields and high global prices, contributing significantly to growth. However, poverty rose to 35.2% of households, with one in five adults unemployed, largely due to limited job creation and high living costs.

Fiscal revenues reached an all-time high (22.9% of GDP) due to strong oil production and tax collection efforts. However, high public spending increased the fiscal deficit (1.0% of GDP) and raised debt-to-GDP ratios to 70.5%, surpassing the regional threshold and increasing fiscal risks.

II. Role of Forestry in the Economy

Forests cover 91% of Gabon's land, providing essential climate services and carbon sequestration. The sector contributes 3.2% to GDP and supports nearly 15,000 jobs. Forestry revenues (0.3% of GDP in 2023) are primarily from property taxes, wood export duties, and land fees, though the oil sector remains dominant overall.

III. Special Topic: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Forestry

The central focus of fiscal reforms is to balance sustainable forest management, conservation, and revenue generation. Current fiscal instruments include land area fees based on certification levels (lower taxes for certified concessions), wood export duties (increased in 2024), and potential for a 'bonus-malus' system to reward sustainable practices.

IV. Government Initiatives and Challenges

The transitional government has implemented reforms to improve governance, including audits of tax expenditures, enhanced digital services, and efforts to increase transparency in resource revenues. Challenges include governance obstacles, weak enforcement capabilities, financing constraints, limited infrastructure (energy, roads, ports), and political uncertainties.

V. Forestry Fiscal Reform Options and Recommendations

To enhance sustainable forestry management:

• Expand the 'bonus-malus' system to other taxes
• Rationalize tax expenditures for agriculture to support sustainable practices
• Implement a clear and coherent forestry code reform
• Promote high-value local wood processing to incentivize value addition

VI. Key Challenges

1. Fiscal Space Constraints: High spending needs for social support and large investments, limited by declining oil revenues and high borrowing costs.
2. Weak Revenue Mobilization: Limited efforts to broaden the tax base or enhance tax compliance.
3. Governance Shortfalls: Complexities in policy implementation and institutions hinder effective conservation and revenue optimization.

VII. Conclusion and Forward-Looking Aspirations

Gabon's outlook for sustainable development depends on implementing impactful reforms. The country needs to leverage fiscal policies effectively to balance environmental ambitions with economic pressures, improve forest fiscal instruments, enhance governance structures, and strengthen international cooperation to ensure sustainable forest management and inclusive growth.