国际能源署-印度天然气市场报告-2030年展望（英）-2025_69页_3mb

India Gas Market Report: Outlook to 2030

Market Dynamics

• India's natural gas market is undergoing a transformative shift driven by economic growth, urbanization, and government policies targeting a 15% share in primary energy by 2030.
• Gas consumption rebounded post-2022 energy crisis, projected to grow nearly 60% (103 bcm/y) by 2030, exceeding previous trends.

Key Infrastructure Developments

• LNG: Capacity expanded significantly, with new terminals and floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) under development.
• Pipelines: Transmission grid length to double by 2030 under "One Nation, One Gas Grid" initiative.
• CGD: Distribution infrastructure expansion has accelerated, though connectivity and enforcement lag behind policy commitments.

Pricing & Market Structure

• India employs mixed pricing: Administered prices for domestic gas, market-based pricing for newer fields/LNG, with ongoing reforms targeting full market freedom.
• IGX: Established in 2020, serves as a national price discovery platform despite market challenges and immature gas hubs.

Sectoral Demand Forecast

• City Gas Distribution (CGD) to lead growth, especially CNG for transportation and small industries.
• Power Generation: Gas consumption expected at 15 bcm/y by 2030, underpinned by stranded capacity utilization and supportive electricity market reforms.
• Oil Refining and Fertilizers remain major consumers, increasingly reliant on imports given limited domestic production growth.

Upstream Production Outlook

• Domestic production tapered in the early 2010s but recovered ~30% between 2020–2024, led by deepwater KG-D6 fields.
• Potential growth faces constraints including fiscal terms, infrastructure gaps, and high deepwater costs.

Policy Priorities

• Gas pricing liberalization: Phased transition toward full market pricing recommended to stimulate supply.
• Infrastructure reform: Enhancing third-party access and unbundling transmission from marketing operations.
• Environmental integration: Aligning gas use with climate goals through carbon pricing and methane emission reduction strategies.

Key Challenges & Opportunities

• Gas gap: Infrastructure bottlenecks and CGD rollout delays constrain demand.
• Supply security: Diversifying imports and increasing storage capacity required to manage market volatility and contractual shortfalls.
• Competition: LNG price sensitivity necessitates policy measures to level the playing field.

Conclusion

India's gas sector faces critical decisions in the coming years to support energy security and decarbonization goals, requiring balanced policy interventions to leverage ongoing growth momentum.