20171222-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_7页_228kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY SUMMARY - 22 December 2017

Core Content

This document is a daily strategy update from BNP Paribas, focusing on Emerging Markets (EM) news and analysis for the region. It is authored by the FX & IR CEEMEA Strategy team and includes insights from local strategists in Turkey and South Africa. The document also provides contact information for EM strategy team members across different regions and includes legal and regulatory disclosures.

Main Points

South Africa

• Trade Balance Data: South Africa's November trade balance data is expected to be released today.
• Positive Outlook: The trade balance is likely to remain in positive territory.
• Reduced Reliance on Portfolio Flows: The country's improved external position has reduced its dependence on foreign portfolio inflows.
• FX Strategy: Given the recent appreciation of the ZAR, the team is positioned for a potential correction using a 1-month USDZAR call spread with strikes evenly weighted at 13.00/13.50.
• Focus Shift: The market's attention is shifting from interest rates to FX.

Turkey

• CBRT Policy Update: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will start receiving payments of rediscount loans in FX from February.
• FX Sale Auction Scheme: The outstanding amount of FX sale auctions will increase gradually unless the CBRT changes the schedule.
• Market Analysis: The document highlights the monetary and FX policy developments in Turkey, suggesting that the CBRT's actions will have implications for the local currency and market dynamics.

Latin America (Latam)

• ARS-Letes Auction: The Strategy team has published a note on the second ARS-Letes auction conducted yesterday.
• Demand vs. Supply: The Treasury aimed to issue ARS 40bn, but only ARS 30.8bn was accepted, with demand reaching ARS 50.3bn.
• Direct Placements: ARS 9.75bn of the accepted amount was placed directly with government entities.

Key Information

• The document is produced by BNP Paribas London Branch and is a marketing communication, not independent research.
• It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties under MiFID.
• BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking, underwriting, and other financial services.
• The document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as authoritative.
• Indicative prices and strategies are based on internal models and may vary significantly from other sources.
• The information may be subject to change and is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete.
• BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in the issuers or securities mentioned, and may act as a market maker, advisor, or underwriter.
• The document includes legal notices for various jurisdictions, including the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland, specifying the intended audience and the nature of the communication.

Contacts

Legal & Regulatory Disclosures

• This document is non-independent research and is a marketing communication.
• It does not constitute investment research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• BNP Paribas may have acted on the information before its publication.
• The document may contain simulated performance data.
• It is intended for Qualified Investors in Switzerland and may not be suitable for others.
• It is not a prospectus, advertisement, or public offering in any jurisdiction.
• No guarantee is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information.
• The document is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be distributed without consent.