20180103-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_7页_228kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY SUMMARY - 03 January 2018

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily market update from BNP Paribas on Emerging Markets (EM) strategy, focusing on Turkey, Poland, and Asia, particularly Thailand. It provides analysis of inflation data, central bank policy implications, and currency performance, along with legal disclaimers and regulatory information.

Key Market Insights

Turkey

• CPI Data: Turkey's CPI rose by 0.7% month-over-month (m/m) in December, aligning with BNP Paribas' forecast but exceeding the market consensus of 0.5%.
• Annual Inflation: The annual inflation rate declined to 11.9% in December, down from a peak of 13% in November.
• Inflation Trend: Despite the decline in annual inflation, the underlying inflation trend is worsening, which may limit the short-term relief.
• Currency Performance: The Turkish Lira (TRY) has not seen significant sell-off pressure despite the higher m/m CPI increase.
• Policy Outlook: The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months. The 50bp hike on 14 December was seen as disappointing, but the lira's resilience suggests market expectations for further hikes.

Poland

• CPI Forecast: Polish CPI is expected to decelerate to 2.2% year-over-year (y/y) in December from 2.5% in November.
• Policy Outlook: The National Bank of Poland (NBP) may have some hawkish members in its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), but they are unlikely to dominate the decision-making process in the short term.
• Economic Context: Price pressures remain contained, and robust economic growth indicators suggest limited need for policy tightening in the first half of 2018.

Asia (Thailand)

• CPI Data: Thailand's CPI was reported at 0.78% y/y in December, below the market consensus of 0.99%.
• Policy Minutes: The Bank of Thailand (BOT) reiterated concerns over prolonged low interest rates, which may lead to underpricing of risks and deterioration in household debt. It suggested that policy rates will remain on hold.
• Rate Outlook: The next MPC meeting is expected to result in a unanimous decision to keep policy rates at 1.5%.

Currency Movements

• THB Performance: The Thai Baht (THB) outperformed the USD by 0.5%.
• Other Asia FX: Other Asian currencies remained broadly unchanged.
• Asia Equities: Asia equities showed positive movement on the day.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• Non-Independent Research: This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• Marketing Communication: It is a marketing communication and not investment research.
• Disclaimer: BNP Paribas does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Confidentiality: The document is provided on a confidential basis and should not be copied or distributed without prior written consent.
• Liability: BNP Paribas disclaims any liability for the accuracy or completeness of the information, including indicative prices and models.
• Regulatory Compliance: The document is compliant with various legal frameworks in different jurisdictions, including MiFID, EU Directive 2003/71/EC, and local regulations in the UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland.

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