20171213-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_7页_730kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY DAILY - 13 December 2017

Core Content Summary

This document is a daily strategy update from BNP Paribas on Emerging Markets (EM) and provides insights into key economic indicators, central bank decisions, and market outlooks for the week.

Key Focus Areas

Fed Meeting & Dollar Momentum

The document emphasizes the upcoming Fed meeting, particularly the language and forecasts regarding the economy.
Dollar momentum is expected to slow due to the Alabama Senate vote and anticipation of the FOMC meeting.
A 25bp interest rate hike is anticipated, as reflected in market pricing.
The central bank is likely to revise its economic forecasts in light of recent strong performance in financial markets and the economy.

Country-Specific Insights

India

November CPI rose to a 15-month high of 4.9% y/y, exceeding expectations.
This reinforces the view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will continue its policy tightening in the second half of 2018.
RBI's hawkish stance is supported by the CPI surge, highlighting upside inflationary risks.

South Africa

November inflation slowed to 4.6% y/y, aligning with the view that inflation pressures remain subdued due to weak domestic demand.
Current account data for Q3 2017 will be released on 14 December, with an expectation of a narrowed deficit.
The ZAR is expected to remain range-bound between 13.50 and 14.50 ahead of the ANC conference (16-20 December), where volatility is anticipated.
Recommendation: Maintain a 1m USDZAR put fly position.
Eskom Tariff Decision: Postponed to 15 December. Expected to be a 7-8% increase, lower than the requested 18.9%, which will impact the inflation outlook and the 2018 National Budget.

Philippines & Indonesia

Central Bank Meetings: BSP and BI will hold meetings on 14 December.
Policy Outlook: Both central banks are expected to keep policy on hold.
Indonesia: Inflation and exchange rate are in line with the BI's forecasts, offering little reason for rate changes.
Philippines: The BSP has stated the economy is not overheating and inflation remains favorable, but there are concerns about rapid credit expansion and non-performing loan growth, suggesting the central bank may be behind the curve in tightening policy.

Asia Strategy Outlook

The Asia Strategy team has outlined 5 key themes for 2018, including:
- Strong growth may already be priced into EM FX.
- A USD resurgence and inflation rebound are underappreciated.
China's Industrial Production data will be released on 14 December. Rumors of a Chinese OMO rate hike have already pushed short-end rates higher.
A rate hike is unlikely in China due to already high funding costs and long-end yields, which could further slow the economy.

Additional Information

EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY CONTACTS are listed, including names, roles, locations, and contact details.
Legal Notice:
- This is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
- It is a marketing communication and not investment research.
- No liability is accepted for any losses arising from reliance on the document.
- Indicative prices are provided for informational purposes only and not as actual transaction terms.
Option & ETF Disclosures:
- Options are complex instruments with a high degree of risk.
- ETFs carry risks such as tracking error, currency risk, and geopolitical risk.
- BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in advisory, underwriting, or market-making activities related to the discussed instruments.
Restricted Securities: Certain instruments discussed may not be registered under U.S. securities laws and are only available to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB) or non-U.S. persons under Regulation S.

Regulatory Disclosures

The document is distributed by BNP Paribas branches in various countries, including UK, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.
Each jurisdiction has its own regulatory requirements, and the document is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
Confidentiality: The document is provided strictly confidential and must not be copied, reproduced, or distributed without prior written consent.

Summary of Recommendations

India: Policy tightening expected in H2 2018.
South Africa: ZAR range-bound between 13.50 and 14.50, with a recommendation to own a 1m USDZAR put fly.
Philippines & Indonesia: Central banks likely to keep policy on hold.
Asia Outlook: Strong growth and potential USD rebound may be underappreciated.
China: Industrial production data on 14 December, with no rate hike expected.

Key Information

Document Date: 13 December 2017
Author: BNP Paribas London Branch
Focus: EM strategy, central bank policy, inflation data, FX outlook
Document Type: Marketing communication, not investment research
Distribution: Limited to professional clients and eligible counterparties
Confidentiality: Strictly confidential, no reproduction or distribution without consent

Main Views

The Fed meeting is a key focus, with expectations of a 25bp rate hike.
India's CPI surge supports the view of RBI tightening in H2 2018.
South Africa is expected to see inflation moderation and current account improvement, with ZAR volatility anticipated.
Philippines and Indonesia are likely to maintain status quo in monetary policy.
Asia strategy highlights underestimated growth and USD rebound potential.
China is expected to avoid rate hikes due to economic slowdown concerns.
Conflicts of interest are acknowledged, and indicative prices are not binding.