20180101-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_7页_226kb

报告摘要

EM STRATEGY DAILY SUMMARY - 02 January 2018

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily market strategy report from BNP Paribas, focusing on Emerging Markets (EM) and providing insights into current economic data, currency movements, and central bank policies. It is authored by BNP Paribas strategy teams and includes relevant contacts for further inquiries.

Key Market Highlights

Risky assets have opened the year on a stronger note, driven by a weak USD.
Currencies in Asia have benefited from USD weakness, with notable gains:
- KRW +0.9%
- USDCNH below 6.50
PMI data across Emerging Markets will be released today, indicating economic activity levels.
Turkey's December CPI is a key focus for tomorrow, with a forecast of 0.7% m/m increase, bringing the annual rate down to 11.9% y/y from 13.0% y/y in November.
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) is expected to take action in its first policy meeting of 2018 on 18 January, with the lira showing resilience despite a 50bp hike in December that fell short of market expectations.

Asia Economic Insights

Singapore's 4Q GDP exceeded expectations at 3.1% y/y, up from 2.6%.
This follows three consecutive quarters of GDP surprises.
2017 annual GDP is at 3.48%, surpassing the MAS's October forecast of 2–3%.
The likelihood of policy tightening in April is increasing, as the MAS has removed its reference to maintaining a constant stance for an "extended period."
December PMI numbers for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea were weaker than November, while China's Caixin PMI was stronger.

Key Contacts

Name	Role	Location	Phone Number	Email Address
Wike Groenenberg	Head of Emerging Markets Research	London	44 20 7595 8746	wike.groenenberg@uk.bnpparibas.com
Marcelo Carvalho	Head of Emerging Markets Research	Sao Paulo	55 11 3841 3418	marcelo.carvalho@br.bnpparibas.com
Sai Ulluri	FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist	London	44 20 7595 1872	sai.ulluri@uk.bnpparibas.com
Mirza Baig	Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy	Singapore	65 6210 3262	mirza.s.baig@asia.bnpparibas.com
Dawn Kwa	Asia Graduate	Singapore	65 6210 3263	dawn.kwa@asia.bnpparibas.com

Legal and Regulatory Notice

The document is a marketing communication and not independent investment research.
It is intended for Relevant Persons as defined by MiFID and other regulations.
BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking, underwriting, and advisory services.
The information is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness and should not be relied upon as authoritative.
Indicative prices are based on internal models and may differ from other sources.
Back-tested performance is provided for illustration only and may not reflect real-world conditions.

Disclaimer

The document does not constitute an offer to sell or issue any financial instruments.
Options, ETFs, and other securities may involve significant risk and are not suitable for all investors.
Certain securities may be restricted and only available to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB) or non-US persons under Regulation S.
No investment advice is provided, and all information is for discussion and reference purposes only.

Summary of Key Points

Risky assets are performing well due to a weaker USD.
Turkey's CPI is expected to decline slightly, with CPI data as a key indicator for the central bank's next moves.
Asia's economic data shows mixed signals, with Singapore outperforming and other EM countries reporting weaker PMI numbers.
Legal disclaimers emphasize that the document is for professional clients and not investment advice.
Conflicts of interest are acknowledged, and confidentiality is required for the information provided.