20171013-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_7页_233kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY Summary - 13 October 2017

Core Content Overview

This document is a daily summary from BNP Paribas's Emerging Markets (EM) strategy team, highlighting key economic data, market movements, and strategic insights relevant to EM and Latam markets. It also includes legal disclaimers and jurisdiction-specific disclosures.

Key Market Insights

US CPI Data

• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the focus of the day.
• The month-on-month data is expected to be higher than recent months, possibly influenced by hurricane effects.
• The consensus expectation for September CPI is 0.6% m/m, which is significantly higher than the average of previous months.
• A downside surprise in the data could provide relief to EM markets following the recent sell-off in September.

Asian Currencies and Equities

• Asian currencies are stronger against the USD, with gains up to 0.3%.
• Asian equities have also rallied.
• India's CPI came in at 3.3% y/y in September, below expectations (3.5%).
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept interest rates on hold since its August meeting due to the CPI data being below expectations.
• A rate cut may occur in December or early next year.

Latin America (Latam) Insights

• In Mexico, Banxico released minutes from its 28 September meeting.
• Policymakers expressed concerns about uncertainties, but the market interpreted the minutes as hawkish.
• The latest inflation report suggests a downward trend in inflation for the coming months, indicating a more benign outlook.

Other Recent Publications

• Colombia: A report on local Debt and Pension Funds Monitor for September 2017 is referenced, though no details are provided.

EM Strategy Contacts

Legal Disclaimer

• This document is non-independent research and is considered a marketing communication under MiFID.
• It is not investment research and should not be relied upon as such.
• BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to its interaction with sales and trading.
• The information and opinions are based on public sources and are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
• No liability is accepted for any use or reliance on the document.
• The document may include indicative prices based on internal models or external sources, which may vary significantly.
• Back-tested performance is included for illustration only and does not reflect actual market conditions or future results.
• ETFs and Convertibles may involve significant risks, including tracking error, currency risk, and credit risk.
• Securities may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain investors.
• No investment, tax, or legal advice is provided in this document.

Jurisdiction-Specific Disclosures

• UK: The document is communicated by BNP Paribas London Branch, which is authorized and supervised by the ECB and ACPR.
• France: The report is produced and/or distributed by BNP Paribas SA and BNP Paribas Arbitrage, both supervised by ECB and ACPR.
• Germany: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and BaFin.
• Belgium: Distributed by BNP Paribas Fortis SA/NV, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and FSMA.
• Ireland: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A., Dublin Branch, regulated in France by ECB and ACPR.
• Italy: Distributed by BNP Paribas Italian Branch, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and Bank of Italy.
• Netherlands: Distributed by BNP Paribas Fortis SA/NV, Netherlands Branch, supervised by ECB, ACPR, and AFM.
• Portugal: Distributed by BNP Paribas - Sucursal em Portugal, authorized by ECB, ACPR, and Banco de Portugal.
• Spain: Distributed by BNP Paribas S.A., S.E., supervised by ECB, ACPR, and Bank of Spain.
• Switzerland: Intended for Qualified Investors only, as defined under CISA and CISO. BNP Paribas (Suisse) SA is authorized by FINMA.
• Canada: The document is not a prospectus or investment advice and is not tailored to the recipient.

Summary

The report emphasizes the importance of the US CPI data in influencing EM markets, noting that a downside surprise could offer relief. It also highlights positive movements in Asian currencies and equities, as well as a more benign inflation outlook in Mexico. The document provides a list of EM strategy contacts across different regions and includes comprehensive legal disclaimers and jurisdiction-specific information, underscoring the non-independent nature of the research and the potential for conflicts of interest.