20231125-五矿期货-热卷周报_成本驱动逻辑未变_6页_10mb

Summary Analysis

Cost End

• The basis for the main contract is approximately -114 yuan/ton, which is normal and no anomalies detected.
• Hot-rolled coil production profit is around 340 yuan/ton loss, indicating that cost remains a significant driver for steel prices.

Supply End

• Iron water production is stable at 235,000 tons per day, consistent with expectations and still at high historical levels.
• Hot-rolled steel coil weekly output is 320,000 tons, up 115,000 tons week-over-week and approximately 80% higher year-over-year.

Demand End

• Hot-rolled steel coil weekly consumption is 327,000 tons, with a 46% increase year-over-year, but demand is expected to weaken in Q4 2023 due to uncertainties.
• No sustained demand improvement, as exports are slowing and economic stimulus efforts may not translate to immediate market gains.

Inventory

• Inventory is declining consistently.

Key Findings

• Overall market fundamentals remain supportive for commodity prices, but trading activity, such as decreasing positions and volumes, suggests reduced upward momentum.
• Policy risks have had minimal impact on iron ore prices, which are still near年内 highs.
• Recommendation: Avoid chasing long positions as risks increase; look for opportunities to short when market eases.
• Risks to consider include iron production increases, abrupt raw material shortages, or improved US-China relations.