20180903-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_30页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 03 September 2018
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of financial performance and market outlook for various regions, focusing on China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. It includes company-specific results, sector updates, key financial metrics, and investment recommendations.
Main Points by Region
China
- Banking Sector:
- 2Q18 results showed moderate loan growth, stable Net Interest Margin (NIM), and growth in fees from bank cards and electronic banking.
- Asset quality remained stable, though ICBC and ABC maintained conservative provisioning, which may help buffer against potential asset quality deterioration.
- Large banks were not affected by the new NPL recognition rules for overdue loans, as they had already been applying them.
- Top Picks: ICBC (BUY, Target: HK$7.68), ABC (BUY, Target: HK$4.40), CCB (BUY, Target: HK$9.02).
Hong Kong
- Property Sector:
- Home prices showed sideways movement in the week.
- No specific financial results or company analysis provided for this sector.
Indonesia
- Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ):
- 2Q18 net income grew by 34.8% year-over-year.
- The company remains a top pick (BUY) with a target price of Rp85,000.
Malaysia
- AirAsia (AIRAMK):
- Core net profit declined slightly, but pricing power remained strong.
- Recommendation: BUY, Target: RM4.10.
- Malayan Banking (MAY MK):
- Results matched expectations.
- Strong cost discipline helped maintain positive operating JAW.
- Recommendation: HOLD, Target: RM9.50.
- Malaysian Resources Corp (MRC MK):
- 1H18 results missed expectations due to slower property sales.
- Proposed asset disposal expected by end of 2018.
- Recommendation: BUY, Target: RM0.98.
- Tenaga Nasional (TNB MK):
- Earnings met expectations.
- Sustainable dividend yield of 4.6%.
- Recommendation: BUY, Target: RM17.70.
Singapore
- Strategy:
- Bracing for higher volatility ahead.
- Focus on safety, yield, and catalysts.
- Top Picks:
- Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH), Target: 9.53
- Gudang Garam (GGRM LJ), Target: 85,000
- PP Persero (PTPP LJ), Target: 3,700
- Bumi Armada (BAB MK), Target: 0.75
- OCBC (OCBC SP), Target: 13.68
- SingTel (ST SP), Target: 3.98
- Siam Cement (SCC TB), Target: 530
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 25964.8 | (0.1) | 0.7 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| S&P 500 | 2901.5 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 8.5 |
| FTSE 100 | 7432.4 | (1.1) | (1.7) | (3.0) | (3.3) |
| AS30 | 6427.8 | (0.5) | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4.2 |
| CSI 300 | 3334.5 | (0.5) | 0.3 | 0.6 | (17.3) |
| FSSTI | 3213.5 | (0.4) | 0.0 | (1.6) | (5.6) |
| HSCEI | 10875.6 | (0.8) | 0.9 | 1.7 | (7.1) |
| HSI | 27888.6 | (1.0) | 0.8 | 0.8 | (6.8) |
| JCI | 6018.5 | (0.0) | 0.8 | 0.2 | (5.3) |
| KLCI | 1819.7 | (0.1) | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| KOSPI | 2322.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | (5.9) |
| Nikkei 225 | 22865.2 | (0.0) | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| SET | 1721.6 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | (1.8) |
| TWSE | 11063.9 | (0.3) | 2.4 | 0.5 | 4.0 |
| BDI | 1579 | (2.2) | (7.0) | (10.9) | 15.6 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2178 | (0.4) | (0.7) | 1.2 | (8.9) |
| Brent Crude (US$/bbl) | 78 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 6.3 | 16.3 |
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP (yoy) 2017 | GDP (yoy) 2018F | GDP (yoy) 2019F |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Euro Zone | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Singapore | 3.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Malaysia | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
| Thailand | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| Indonesia | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2,783 | 2,400 | 2,500 |
| Brent (Average) | 55.00 | 71.60 | 71.00 |
Corporate Events
- Roadshow with Bright Scholar: Singapore, 3 Sep
- Education Holdings Limited (BEDU US): Kuala Lumpur, 4 Sep
- Group Luncheon with Nexteer: Hong Kong, 11 Sep
- Roadshow with VS Industry (VSI MK): Singapore, 17 Sep
- Roadshow with China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings (570 HK): Taipei, 20-21 Sep
- UOB Kay Hian Asian Gems Conference: Singapore, 9-10 Oct
- Roadshow with Digi.com (DIGI MK): Canada, 30 Oct-2 Nov
- UOB Kay Hian Annual Regional 1H2019 Strategy Conference: Kuala Lumpur, 13 Nov
Beijing Capital International Airport (694 HK)
-
1H18 Performance:
- Earnings were in line with expectations, but not a share price catalyst.
- Non-aeronautical revenue rose 24% yoy due to higher retail and duty-free contracts.
- Aeronautical revenue grew 7.6% yoy, driven by increased aircraft handling and landing fees.
- Operating cash flow fell 4.3% yoy to Rmb1.7b.
- Staff costs remained elevated, and the company expects them to stay high as traffic diversion to the new Daxing Airport begins in 2019.
- Recommendation: HOLD, Target Price: HK$8.90, Suggested Entry Price: HK$7.50.
-
Financial Highlights:
- Net Profit (2018F): Rmb2,897m
- PE (2018F): 10.9x
- P/B (2018F): 1.4x
- Dividend Yield (2018F): 3.7%
-
Valuation:
- Reduced fair value assumption from 16x to 15x 2019-20F average PE.
- Acquisition of GTC assets will not be earnings-accretive.
-
Operating Assumptions:
- Aeronautical revenue growth: 4.3% (2018F)
- Non-aeronautical revenue growth: 25.7% (2018F)
- Pax movements: 6.0% (2018F)
- Aircraft movement growth: 4.1% (2018F)
Analysts
- Jonathan Koh, CFA: +65 6590 6620, jonathankoh@uobkayhian.com
- Clement Voon: +603 2147 1912, clementvoon@uobkayhian.com
Summary of Key Financial Performance for 2Q18
| Company | Net Interest Income | Fees & Commissions | Operating Income | Profit After Tax | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICBC | 140,604 | 37,647 | 178,117 | 81,640 | 5.7% |
| CCB | 116,804 | 31,073 | 157,811 | 73,212 | 7.5% |
| ABC | 116,352 | 20,251 | 150,712 | 57,053 | 7.9% |
| BOC | 90,650 | 22,406 | 125,396 | 60,087 | 5.3% |
| CMB | 39,073 | 18,548 | 64,275 | 22,082 | 14.5% |
Risk and Headwinds
- Headwinds:
- Deleveraging and curbs on shadow banking have slowed total social financing and money supply.
- Trade conflicts create uncertainty for the export sector, potentially impacting asset quality, especially in coastal provinces.
- Staff costs remain high due to safety requirements and expected traffic diversion to the new airport in 2019.
Summary of Sector Catalysts
- Resilient GDP Growth: Despite headwinds, GDP growth is expected to remain stable.
- Moderate NPL Formation: NPLs and credit costs are expected to rise gradually and remain manageable.
- Banking Sector: Strong deposit franchises and cost discipline help maintain profitability.
- Airport Sector: Non-aeronautical revenue is expected to grow in 2H18, but staff costs will remain a challenge.
Summary of Investment Recommendations
- BUY: ICBC, ABC, CCB, Gudang Garam, Malaysian Resources Corp, Tenaga Nasional
- HOLD: Malayan Banking, Beijing Capital International Airport
Summary of Valuation and Performance
- Valuation Adjustments: Lowered target price for Beijing Capital International Airport from HK$9.80 to HK$8.90.
- Market Performance: No immediate catalysts for BCIA.
- Stock Impact: Expected growth in non-aeronautical revenue in 2H18 but challenges from staff costs and asset acquisition.
Conclusion
The report highlights a mixed financial landscape across the region, with some sectors showing resilience and growth, while others face headwinds such as trade conflicts and deleveraging. Key recommendations include maintaining BUY positions for ICBC, ABC, and Gudang Garam, and HOLD for BCIA and Malayan Banking. The report also outlines corporate events and provides detailed financial and operational data for each company.
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