亚开行-气候风险国家概况：印度尼西亚（英文）-2021.5-36页_1mb

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: INDONESIA

Core Content

This document presents a comprehensive overview of Indonesia's climate risk profile, developed by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It serves as a reference tool for development practitioners to integrate climate resilience into policy and planning processes. The profile synthesizes climate data, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation strategies, highlighting the country's vulnerability to climate change and the need for proactive measures.

Main Points

Climate Vulnerability

• Indonesia is ranked 97th out of 181 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Country Index, indicating high vulnerability to climate change impacts.
• The country is among the top-third of nations in terms of climate risk, with high exposure to flooding, extreme heat, and droughts.
• Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of these hazards, with significant consequences for population exposure and livelihoods.

Climate Projections

• Temperature projections suggest an increase of 0.8°C to 1.4°C by the 2050s, with higher warming rates potentially experienced inland.
• Precipitation changes are uncertain but show a general trend of increased rainfall in western and southern regions and reduced rainfall in southern islands.
• Under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the number of dry days in western Indonesia is projected to increase significantly by the second half of the 21st century.

Climate Change Impacts

• Natural Resources: Indonesia is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, with the fifth-largest population in low-lying coastal zones. Without adaptation, over 4.2 million people could be exposed to permanent flooding by 2070–2100.
• Agriculture: Rice production is particularly at risk due to changes in El Niño patterns and rising temperatures, which could reduce crop yields.
• Water Resources: Climate change is expected to affect water availability, increasing the risk of droughts and reducing freshwater supply.
• Urban Areas: Coastal urban zones face heightened risks from sea-level rise and extreme weather events, impacting infrastructure and public services.
• Health and Nutrition: Climate change may exacerbate health issues and food insecurity, especially among vulnerable populations.
• Poverty and Inequality: The poorest and most marginalized communities are likely to suffer the most from climate impacts, despite national-level vulnerability indexes suggesting a reduction in overall climate vulnerability.

Emissions and Mitigation

• Indonesia's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are largely driven by land use change, particularly the conversion of peatlands into agricultural plantations, contributing 52.3% of total emissions between 2000 and 2017.
• Emissions from the energy sector account for about 25% of the country's total emissions and are growing.
• The government has set emission reduction targets of 26% by 2020 (with international support) and 29% by 2030 (unconditional), with a conditional target of 41%.

Adaptation Strategies

• Indonesia's medium-term strategy aims to reduce climate risks across all development sectors by 2030, including agriculture, water, energy, forestry, and urban systems.
• The country has developed a National Action Plan for Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction (RAN-GRK) and completed its Third National Communication (NC3) and Second Biennial Update Report (BUR2).

Climate Risk Management Frameworks

• The WBG and ADB have established climate risk screening tools and frameworks to guide development operations.
• The WBG's Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool is used to assess climate and disaster risks in development projects and planning processes.
• ADB requires climate risk screening at the project concept stage, with full assessments for medium to high-risk projects.

Key Information

Climate Baseline

• Indonesia has a tropical climate with high rainfall in low-lying areas and cooler temperatures in mountainous regions.
• The wet season occurs from November to April, while the dry season is from May to October.
• Average annual temperatures are around 25°C–26°C, with precipitation ranging from 1,800 mm to 6,000 mm depending on elevation.
• The climate is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with drier conditions during El Niño and wetter during La Niña.

Climate Trends

• Since 1960, the number of hot days and nights has increased by 88 days and 95 nights per year, respectively.
• There is limited observational data available for the entire archipelago, with most data focused on Sumatra and Borneo.
• Studies indicate a general decrease in average annual precipitation in some regions, with increased variability across the country.

Climate Future

• Under all emissions scenarios, Indonesia is projected to experience warming, with RCP8.5 showing the most significant temperature increases.
• The median temperature anomaly by 2040–2059 is 0.9°C, and by 2080–2099, it is 3.4°C under RCP8.5.
• Precipitation projections are less certain, but there is a likely increase in western and southern areas and a decrease in southern islands.
• Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense.

Climate-Related Natural Hazards

• Heatwaves: Increasing frequency and intensity of hot days and nights.
• Drought and Fire Risk: Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns increase the risk of droughts and associated wildfires.
• Floods: High exposure to flooding, especially in coastal and riverine areas.
• Sea Level Rise: A major threat to coastal populations, with potential for over 4.2 million people to be exposed to permanent flooding.
• Cyclones: Although less frequent, cyclones pose a growing risk due to climate change.

Conclusion

Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate change, with significant risks to natural resources, agriculture, water availability, urban development, and public health. While the country has made commitments to reduce GHG emissions and enhance climate resilience, the need for localized adaptation efforts and targeted disaster risk reduction remains critical, especially for the poorest and most marginalized communities. The collaboration between the WBG and ADB aims to provide technical resources and guidance to support these efforts and promote a green, inclusive, and resilient recovery.