深度-亚开行-气候风险国家概况：吉尔吉斯共和国（英文）-2021.6-28页_1mb

Summary of the Kyrgyz Republic Climate Risk Country Profile

Core Content

This document provides a detailed analysis of the climate risks facing the Kyrgyz Republic, focusing on temperature and precipitation trends, climate-related natural hazards, and the potential impacts of climate change on the country's natural resources, economic sectors, and communities. It also outlines the national and international policies and programs aimed at addressing these challenges and promoting climate resilience.

Key Messages

• The Kyrgyz Republic is projected to experience temperature rises significantly above the global average, potentially reaching 5.3°C by the 2090s under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5).
• Warming is expected to be more pronounced in maximum and minimum temperatures, increasing pressure on human lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems.
• Heat stress could pose a serious risk to human life, particularly in lowland regions such as the Fergana Valley, where temperatures may regularly exceed 40°C.
• Drought and heat could combine to expand arid land cover, negatively impacting agricultural yields and ecosystem viability, especially at higher altitudes.
• The water sector is projected to undergo a regime shift due to the loss of mountain glaciers, leading to irregular water flows and potential drying of watersheds.
• Flooding and landslides are expected to intensify, increasing the risk to human lives and livelihoods. Hazardous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and widespread landslide exposure require focused disaster risk reduction efforts.
• The Kyrgyz Republic faces multidimensional poverty and undernourishment, with climate change likely to slow progress in addressing these issues, especially among the poorest and most marginalized groups.

Country Overview

The Kyrgyz Republic, a landlocked country in Central Asia, is bordered by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China. Approximately 94% of the country is above 1,000 meters in elevation, with 40% above 3,000 meters. 80% of the country is within the Tian Shan mountain chain, and 4% is permanently under ice and snow. The population was 6.5 million in 2019, with most residing in the foothills and around the urban centers of Bishkek (north) and Osh-Jalal-Abad (west).

The country has a complex socio-economic context, with a low GDP per capita and a high national poverty rate (25.4%). However, it performs better in terms of undernourishment (6.4%). The country has experienced high outmigration rates, with an estimated 0.5% of the population leaving annually between 2010-2015. Remittances constitute 28.5% of GDP in 2019.

The national economy has shifted from agriculture (14.6% of GDP in 2017) to services (54.2%), although agriculture remains a major employer. The country is ranked 75th out of 181 in the ND-GAIN Index, which assesses vulnerability to climate change and readiness for resilience.

Climate Baseline

The Kyrgyz Republic has an extreme continental climate, with arid conditions and high spatial and inter-annual variability. Average annual temperatures range from < -10°C in high-altitude regions to >12°C in lowlands. Mean annual precipitation is 378.3 mm, with higher levels in the Jalal-Abad region. 24% of the country's surface area is above 3,500 meters, historically under permanent snow cover.

Key Trends

Temperature

• Average annual temperatures have increased by ~1.1°C from 1960-2010.
• The rate of warming has accelerated since 1990-2010.
• Winter minimum temperatures have shown the most significant warming.
• Temperature anomalies are projected to rise under all RCP scenarios, with the most extreme increases under RCP8.5.

Precipitation

• There has been little change in national average annual precipitation from 1920-2010.
• Sub-national changes are observed, with increases in central and northwestern areas and decreases in the east.
• Winter precipitation is correlated with ENSO, with more rainfall under El Niño conditions.
• Precipitation projections are less certain, but extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity with rising temperatures.

Climate Future

Temperature Projections

• Under RCP8.5, the Kyrgyz Republic is projected to warm by ~5.6°C by the 2090s, compared to the global average of ~3.7°C.
• Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to rise ~10% more than average temperatures.
• Summer months (July, August, September) are projected to experience stronger warming than other seasons.

Precipitation Projections

• There is considerable uncertainty in long-term precipitation trends.
• Sub-daily extreme rainfall events are expected to increase in intensity with rising temperatures, supported by regional evidence in Asia.
• The CCKP model ensemble shows divergent projections for precipitation change, with no consensus on direction or magnitude.

Climate-Related Natural Hazards

• Heatwaves are a growing concern, particularly in lowland regions.
• Droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity, potentially expanding arid land cover.
• Floods and landslides are likely to intensify, especially in mountainous and glacial regions.
• Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose a significant risk due to the presence of multiple hazardous glacial lakes.

Climate Change Impacts

Natural Resources

• Water resources are expected to undergo a regime shift due to the melting of mountain glaciers.
• Land, soil, and ecosystems may experience range shifts and habitat loss, particularly at higher altitudes.

Economic Sectors

• Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change, with potential reductions in yields due to drought and heat stress.
• Urban and energy sectors are at risk from extreme weather events and water scarcity.
• Infrastructure is exposed to increased flood and landslide risks, necessitating adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures.

Communities

• Poverty and inequality are prevalent, with climate change impacts likely to slow progress in addressing them.
• Vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by climate-related disasters.
• Human health is at risk from heat stress, water scarcity, and increased disease transmission due to changing climate conditions.

Policies and Programs

• The Kyrgyz Republic has committed to climate change adaptation through its First and Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• The World Bank Group (WBG) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) have integrated climate risk screening into their development operations.
• The WBG's Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool is used to assess climate and disaster risks in national and sectoral planning.
• The ADB's Climate Change Operational Framework focuses on mainstreaming climate considerations into project design, implementation, and evaluation.
• Disaster risk reduction is a key priority, especially for glacial lake outburst floods and landslide exposure.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic is highly vulnerable to climate change, with temperature rises and precipitation uncertainty posing significant challenges to natural resources, economic sectors, and communities. The country has recognized these risks and has taken steps to integrate climate action into development planning. Continued international collaboration, climate risk screening, and adaptation strategies are essential for building resilience and achieving sustainable development.