20231024-恒力期货-甲醇进口短期难见明显减量_4页_2mb

Methanol Import Analysis Summary from 恒力期货研究院

This report, dated October 24, 2023, analyzes China's methanol import and export data for September 2023. The key focus is on import trends and their drivers.

For September 2023, China's methanol import volume was 13,332,000 tons, representing a 4% increase from the previous month and a 35% year-on-year rise. Cumulatively, from January to September, imports totaled 105,665,000 tons, up 14% compared to the same period last year. Chinese methanol imports have remained high since May, with five consecutive months exceeding 120,000 tons, indicating sustained elevated import levels.

Import sources are dominated with 62% from the Middle East (notably 8,304,000 tons), 11% from Southeast Asia and New Zealand, and 18% from the Americas. Russian imports, while not the primary source in any single month, contributed 1,295,000 tons during the period, adding to the cumulative imports from non-Iranian sources;伊朗 imports are expected to reduce toward year-end but will likely sustain imports until then, with Russia playing a role in the short term.

Looking forward, October imports may see some reduction due to maintenance and shutdowns in the Middle East and expected weaker production in Europe and America, potentially affecting arbitrage flows. However, import volumes are expected to decrease only marginally, likely staying around 120,000 tons based on port arrivals, due to ongoing supply from non-Iranian sources. Concerning export data is limited, as exports remained low. The longer-term reduction in imports will probably occur after Iranian gas curtailments begin in late 2023.

The report highlights various risks and disclosures, including disclaimer on investment and data reliability, emphasizing that the analysis is based on available data and may change with new developments.