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Summary of IRENA's REmap 2030 for the Russian Federation

Core Content

IRENA's REmap 2030 report provides an analysis of the potential for renewable energy development in the Russian Federation up to 2030, focusing on the expansion of renewable energy technologies across power generation, heating, and transport sectors. The report outlines the current status, future projections, and key drivers for renewable energy growth in Russia, as well as the associated costs and benefits.

Main Points

Current Renewable Energy Situation in Russia

• In 2010, renewable energy use in Russia was dominated by hydropower (70%) and bioenergy (30%) in the power and heating sectors.
• The total final energy consumption (TFEC) from renewable sources in 2010 was 0.6 EJ, representing 3.6% of the country's total energy consumption.
• By the end of 2015, total installed renewable power generation capacity reached 53.5 GW, with hydropower accounting for 51.5 GW, bioenergy for 1.35 GW, solar PV for 460 MW, and onshore wind for 111 MW.

Key Drivers for Renewable Energy Uptake

IRENA identifies four main drivers that could accelerate the adoption of renewable energy in Russia:

1. Economic activity and job creation
2. Science and technology development
3. Energy supply to isolated areas
4. Improving the quality of the environment

Reference Case Projections (2030)

• Under the Reference Case, the share of renewable energy in Russia's TFEC is projected to increase to 4.9% by 2030.
• Hydropower will remain the largest contributor, representing over 50% of final renewable energy use.
• Bioenergy will account for nearly 50% of renewable energy use, especially in heating and transport.
• Solar PV, onshore wind, and geothermal will contribute 4% of the total renewable energy use.
• Total final renewable energy use is expected to nearly double from 0.6 EJ in 2010 to 1.1 EJ in 2030.
• Renewable energy generation is projected to increase from 169 TWh in 2010 to 487 TWh in 2030.
• Hydropower and onshore wind will provide 100 TWh of renewable power for export to Asian countries.

REmap Scenario (2030)

• Under the REmap scenario, the share of renewable energy in TFEC increases to 11.3% by 2030.
• The power generation sector is expected to have the highest renewable share, reaching 30% by 2030.
• Hydropower (20%), wind (10%), solar PV (10%), and geothermal will collectively contribute to this.
• In the heating sector, the renewable share is expected to reach 15%.
• In the transport sector, the renewable share is projected to increase from 1% in 2010 to 8% in 2030.
• Onshore wind capacity will reach 23 GW, solar PV will reach 5 GW, and bioenergy will reach 26 GW by 2030.
• Total hydropower capacity will reach 94 GW by 2030.

Investment and Costs

• The average annual investment required to achieve the REmap scenario is estimated at USD 15 billion between 2010 and 2030.
• Renewable power generation accounts for USD 13 billion per year, while end-use sectors require USD 2 billion.
• The average substitution cost of renewables by 2030 is USD 8.7/GJ, based on a business perspective with an 11% discount rate, USD 80 crude oil price, and USD 3.3 natural gas price per MMBtu.
• Decentralised heating and bioenergy in buildings and industrial processes are close to cost-competitiveness in 2030, assuming the use of low-cost biomass feedstocks.

Environmental and Economic Benefits

• When considering externalities (health and climate change), renewables identified under REmap could save up to USD 8 billion per year by 2030.

Key Information

Renewable Energy Potential

• Biomass is a significant resource, with 2.4 EJ of primary bioenergy demand by 2030, compared to a supply potential of 2-14 EJ.
• Solar radiation and wind speed data are provided for different regions, highlighting the technical potential for solar and wind energy.

Challenges and Barriers

• Investment and market barriers for solar PV and wind need to be addressed to accelerate their deployment.
• Ensuring supply of energy crops and biogas feedstocks is critical to meet the growing demand under REmap.
• Aging infrastructure and outdated transmission and distribution networks hinder efficient energy use.

Policy and Implementation

• The Russian Energy Strategy to 2035 includes detailed projections of energy use by sector and fuel.
• REmap Russia is a working paper that builds on the Russian government's input and stakeholder consultations.
• Energy policies and market mechanisms need to be aligned with the integration of renewable energy sources.

Conclusion

IRENA's REmap 2030 report outlines the potential for Russia to significantly increase its renewable energy share by 2030, both in the Reference Case and under the REmap accelerated scenario. The report highlights the importance of long-term planning, policy integration, and addressing market barriers to achieve this goal. It also underscores the economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy adoption, especially when externalities are considered.