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Summary of IRENA's REmap 2030 for the Russian Federation

Core Content

IRENA's REmap 2030 report provides an analysis of the potential for renewable energy development in the Russian Federation up to 2030. It outlines the current state of renewable energy in Russia, identifies key drivers for its growth, and presents two scenarios: the Reference Case and the REmap scenario, which assumes accelerated renewable energy deployment.

Main Findings

• In 2010, renewable energy accounted for 3.6% of Russia's total final energy consumption (TFEC), with hydropower making up 70% of renewable energy use and bioenergy accounting for the remaining 30%.
• By the end of 2015, total installed renewable power generation capacity reached 53.5 GW, representing 20% of Russia's total power generation capacity. Hydropower dominated with 51.5 GW, followed by bioenergy at 1.35 GW, and solar PV and onshore wind at 460 MW and 111 MW, respectively.
• Under the Reference Case, the renewable share in TFEC is projected to increase to 4.9% by 2030, with a focus on expanding solar PV, onshore wind, and geothermal capacity to 5.9 GW by the end of 2024.
• Total final renewable energy use is expected to nearly double from 0.6 EJ in 2010 to 1.1 EJ in 2030, equivalent to 5% of the country's total energy demand in 2030.
• Hydropower remains the dominant source of renewable energy, accounting for over 50% of final renewable energy use, while bioenergy gains a significant market share in heating and transport, reaching nearly 50% of total renewable use by 2030.
• Solar PV, wind, and geothermal contribute 4% of the total renewable energy use in the Reference Case.
• The REmap scenario projects a higher renewable share of 11.3% in TFEC by 2030, with the power generation sector leading at 30%, and heating and transport sectors at 15% and 8%, respectively.
• By 2030, REmap expects onshore wind capacity to reach 23 GW, solar PV to reach 5 GW, and bioenergy to reach 26 GW. Total hydropower capacity is projected to reach 94 GW.
• Total renewable power generation is expected to triple from 169 TWh in 2010 to 487 TWh in 2030, with 100 TWh available for export to Asian countries.
• The average annual investment required to achieve the REmap scenario is estimated at USD 15 billion, with USD 13 billion allocated to renewable power generation (excluding transmission and distribution) and USD 2 billion for end-use sectors.
• The average substitution cost for renewable energy in the REmap scenario is USD 8.7/GJ, which is the additional cost of renewables to the Russian energy system.
• Accounting for externalities (health and climate change), renewables under REmap could save up to USD 8 billion annually by 2030.
• Biomass feedstock supply is a critical factor in achieving the REmap targets, as demand for energy crops and biogas feedstocks may reach the limits of their supply by 2030.

Key Drivers for Renewable Energy Uptake

IRENA identifies four main drivers for accelerating the adoption of renewables in Russia:

• Economic activity and job creation
• Science and technology development
• Energy supply to isolated areas
• Improving the quality of the environment

Key Challenges and Barriers

• Investment and market barriers for solar PV and wind need to be minimized to accelerate their early deployment.
• Long-term energy planning and integration of renewables into existing energy policies and their implementation are crucial.
• Ensuring sufficient supply of biomass feedstocks, especially energy crops and biogas feedstocks, will be essential to meet REmap targets.

Renewable Energy Cost and Benefits

• The levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for renewables is compared to non-renewables in Table 1.
• In the REmap scenario, solar PV and onshore wind are economically viable in isolated regions but remain more expensive in the wholesale market due to low natural gas prices.
• Decentralised heating in buildings and for industrial processes is close to cost-competitiveness in 2030, provided that low-cost biomass feedstocks are used.

Renewable Energy Potential by Resource and Region

• Russia has significant renewable energy potential, particularly in hydropower, bioenergy, solar, and wind.
• The resource potential is outlined in Annex C, with solar radiation and wind speed data presented in Figures 20 and 21.
• Regional technical potential for hydropower in small rivers is detailed in Figure 24.

Conclusion

IRENA's REmap 2030 report outlines a pathway for Russia to significantly increase its renewable energy share by 2030. It emphasizes the importance of long-term planning, policy integration, and overcoming investment and market barriers to achieve this goal. The report highlights the economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy and provides a detailed analysis of the technologies and sectors involved.