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RENEWABLE ENERGY ROADMAP FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CYPRUS SUMMARY

Core Content

The Renewable Energy Roadmap for the Republic of Cyprus outlines a strategic approach to transition the country’s energy system towards a more sustainable, cost-effective and secure electricity supply. It highlights the importance of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in reducing electricity costs, enhancing energy security, and supporting environmental goals. The roadmap is based on comprehensive energy balance and demand forecasts, an electricity supply model, and technical studies on variable renewable energy (VRE) integration.

Main Viewpoints

• High Electricity Costs: Cyprus has one of the highest electricity prices in Europe due to reliance on imported liquid fuels.
• Renewable Energy Transition: A major shift towards renewable energy is imminent, driven by indigenous natural gas discoveries and declining renewable energy costs.
• Policy and Economic Benefits: Transitioning to renewables can reduce fuel imports, improve trade balance, and create local jobs.
• Energy Security and Sustainability: Renewable energy is seen as a more secure and sustainable option, especially for island nations like Cyprus, which are heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports.
• Market Design and Policy Reforms: Current electricity market design and policy frameworks may hinder the competitiveness of renewables, requiring reform to support their integration.

Key Information

1. Energy Balance and Demand Forecasts

• An extensive energy balance and demand forecast analysis was conducted using 2012 and 2013 data, in collaboration with the Cyprus University of Technology (CUT).
• The analysis includes final energy demand forecasts up to 2040 for different scenarios, reflecting varying assumptions about Cyprus’ economic and energy system development.
• The national energy balance and two demand forecast scenarios were used as inputs for the electricity supply model.

2. Electricity Supply Model

• The Electricity Supply Model for Cyprus (ESMC) was developed using the MESSAGE platform (IIASA 2012).
• It allows for dynamic, bottom-up, multi-year analysis and uses linear and mixed-integer optimisation techniques.
• Six main scenarios (SC1 to SC6) were defined to explore different energy system developments, including natural gas availability, grid interconnectors, and technical constraints.

3. Technical Studies on VRE Integration

• Two studies were conducted to support the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) into the grid:
  • VRE Production Forecasting: To support planning and forecasting of renewable energy supply.
  • Grid Support Services from VRE Systems: To explore the use of advanced technologies for grid stability and support.
• These studies provide insights into how Cyprus can better integrate VRE while maintaining grid reliability.

Key Findings

• Renewable Energy Share: Cyprus is projected to have 25% to 40% of its electricity supply from renewables by 2030, with solar PV being the dominant source.
• Solar PV and Wind: Solar PV is expected to supply 15% to 27% of electricity, while wind contributes 5% to 9%.
• Job Creation: The deployment of renewables could create between 11,000 and 22,000 jobs by 2030.
• Cost Reduction: Renewable energy and natural gas are expected to reduce generation costs to EUR 83–92/MWh by 2030, compared to EUR 130/MWh in 2013.
• Scenario Analysis: The six scenarios explore different combinations of natural gas availability, grid interconnectors, and technical constraints. SC5, which includes the EuroAsia Interconnector, shows the highest renewable share (40.1%) by 2030.

Policy Recommendations

• Market Incentives for Flexibility: Create market incentives to increase the flexibility of thermal power plants, reducing must-run requirements and enabling better integration of RETs.
• Net-Billing Scheme: Transition from net-metering to asymmetric net-billing, where electricity is sold at market price or a feed-in tariff below marginal generation cost.
• Ancillary Services Participation: Allow RETs to participate in the ancillary services market, reducing the need for costly grid support measures.
• Feed-In Tariff Regime: Maintain the feed-in tariff regime until a fully functional market for RETs is established, ensuring fair compensation and reducing investment risk.
• Forecasting and Market Design: Improve short-term forecasting and enhance market design to support the integration of VRE, which is crucial for reducing costs and increasing renewable shares.
• Investment in VRE: Accelerate deployment of solar PV, wind, and concentrated solar power (CSP) to lower generation costs and improve energy security.

Conclusion

The roadmap provides a framework for Cyprus to transition to a more sustainable and economically viable energy system. It highlights the need for policy reforms, market design improvements, and long-term planning to support the integration of renewable energy. By leveraging the potential of solar PV and wind, Cyprus can significantly reduce its electricity costs, enhance energy security, and contribute to global climate goals. The recommendations aim to create a supportive environment for renewable energy investment and ensure that Cyprus becomes a model for sustainable energy development in the Mediterranean region.