国际可再生资源机构-可再生能源准备评估：白俄罗斯（英）-2021.7-80页_10mb

Renewables Readiness Assessment: Belarus

Core Content

The Renewables Readiness Assessment (RRA) for Belarus, published by IRENA in July 2021, provides a comprehensive analysis of the country's renewable energy landscape. It outlines the current status of the energy sector, identifies challenges, and proposes key actions to enhance the development of renewable energy sources in the country.

Main Points

• Country Overview: Belarus is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe with a population of approximately 9.5 million. After the dissolution of the USSR, its economy contracted but later recovered due to increased productivity, favorable trade terms, and industrial growth.

• Energy Sector Context:

  • The energy sector is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with natural gas and oil making up 62% and 28% of the total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2019, respectively.
  • Over 85% of the country's energy supply comes from imports, primarily from Russia, making it one of the most energy import-dependent nations globally.
  • The electricity generation is also fossil fuel-based, with minimal integration of renewables.

• Renewable Energy Development:

  • Renewable energy accounted for 7.1% of the TPES in 2019, mainly from biofuels, followed by solar PV and wind.
  • There is significant potential for biomass, solar, and wind energy across the country, especially in the south and southeast for solar applications.
  • Geothermal potential is also present, though not extensively studied.

• Rationale for Renewable Energy Development:

  • Enhances energy security by reducing fossil fuel dependency.
  • Supports economic growth and job creation.
  • Reduces greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contributes to sustainable development.
  • Creates local value chains and promotes industrial development.

Key Recommendations

• Revising Renewable Energy Targets:

  • Current targets are inconsistent and need to be revised and streamlined to ensure alignment with broader development goals, including energy security.

• Improving Quota Allocation:

  • Quotas for renewable energy should be increased, especially for solar PV and wind, and extended to a five-year period to provide better planning certainty for investors.
  • Quotas should also be reallocated to support biomass and wind, and exclude renewable prosumers.

• Designing Renewable Energy Auctions:

  • Auctions can replace feed-in tariffs (FiTs) to enable market-based pricing and reduce perceived market risks.
  • They promote cost-effective and well-planned deployment of renewable energy.

• Developing a Law on Energy and Heat:

  • A comprehensive and dedicated legal framework is needed to govern the energy sector and support the development of renewables.
  • A specific heat law could incentivise renewable energy in the heating sector and signal political commitment to decarbonisation.

• Harnessing Renewable Energy Potentials in Heating:

  • The use of biomass in heating should be supported by standardised quality assessments and pricing based on calorific value.
  • Integration of modern energy-efficient technologies like heat pumps, solar thermal, and low-enthalpy geothermal is essential.

• Developing an Energy Sector Master Plan:

  • A master plan should integrate cross-sector strategies to guide the development of the energy sector with higher renewable shares.
  • It would facilitate policy assessments and support the coordination of renewable targets, quotas, and auction rounds.

• Adopting a Grid Code for Renewables:

  • A national grid code is necessary to outline technical and procedural requirements for variable renewable energy producers.
  • This would help in reducing investment risks and ensuring grid stability.

• Improving Variable Renewable Power Forecasting:

  • Better forecasting mechanisms are required to integrate wind and solar PV into daily scheduling and dispatch operations.
  • Short-term forecasting (up to six hours) should be standardised to reduce uncertainty and power curtailments.

• Improving De-Risking Mechanisms:

  • The financial sector lacks experience in green financing, leading to high costs and limited access to debt and equity financing.
  • A dedicated renewable energy fund and standardised PPAs with government-backed guarantees are recommended.

• Standardising Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs):

  • PPAs should be standardised across different renewable technologies and regions.
  • They should be signed before the project is commissioned to reduce developer risks and support project bankability.

• Building Human and Institutional Capacities:

  • Capacity building is essential for both public and private sectors.
  • The public sector needs to strengthen its ability to plan and implement incentive schemes.
  • The private sector requires support in due diligence and project documentation.
  • Academic institutions and on-the-job training should be enhanced to develop a qualified workforce.

Key Information

• IRENA's Role: IRENA conducted the RRA in collaboration with the State Committee for Standardisation and government agencies, providing technical expertise and insights to support renewable energy deployment.

• Challenges:

  • High fossil fuel dependency and energy import reliance.
  • Low investor confidence due to inconsistent and reduced quotas.
  • Limited financial support and lack of green financing mechanisms.
  • Insufficient technical standards and forecasting capabilities.
  • Inadequate legal frameworks for renewable energy development.

• Potential Opportunities:

  • Abundant biomass, solar, and wind resources.
  • Potential for local value creation and employment.
  • Alignment with global sustainable development goals, particularly Goal 7.

Conclusion

The RRA outlines a roadmap for Belarus to transition towards a more sustainable and secure energy system. By addressing policy, financial, and institutional barriers, and leveraging its renewable energy resources, Belarus can significantly increase its renewable energy share, reduce emissions, and enhance energy security. The recommendations aim to create a supportive environment for renewable energy development and investment, ensuring long-term economic and environmental benefits.