20240801-东海期货-研究所晨会观点精萃_8页_304kb

报告摘要

Federal Reserve Meeting: Interest rate unchanged, doors opened for September rate cut due to stronger employment data cooling inflation fears, leading to dollar decline and global risk appetite improvement. Market pricing almost fully anticipates a September cut.
Middle East Tensions: Recent events in the region increase geopolitical risks, potentially raising global risk aversion and supporting safe-haven assets.
China Economic Data: July PMI data shows continued放缓, indicating slower economic recovery, but国务院's novel urbanization plan signals policy stimulus to boost domestic risk preference by increasing城镇化rate to near 70% over five years.

Indices: Short-term cautious bullish on stock indices due to policy support and sector-driven recovery.
Bonds: Cautious bullish; high yield equities may see strength.
Commodities: Overall cautious outlook; wait for specific catalysts in certain sectors.
Precious Metals: Potentially cautious bullish.

Black Metal: Weakness expected due to declining demand; short-term cautious观望.
Iron Ore: Prices may stabilize or rebound if steel production cuts are confirmed; closely watch port inventories and shipping trends.
Coal/Coke: Weak demand and profit squeezes; recommended to cautiously exit shorts if positioning.
Base Metals (e.g., Copper, Aluminum): Affected by Fed policies; Copper shows potential rebound; Aluminum bearish due to supply glut.
Energy/Chemicals: Benefit from Middle East risks and inventory drawdown; crude oil may surge, while refining products show mixed views.
Agricultural Products: Weak on supply-demand balance; soft commodities like soybean meal face downward pressure.

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