20150731-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_843kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - July 31, 2015

Core Content

This summary provides an overview of financial performance and market insights for several companies and sectors in the Philippines, including utilities, property, oil, media, and gaming, as of July 31, 2015.

Key Sectors and Companies

Utilities

AP (PHP46.60): Davao Coal & Sabangan priced-in, with a recommendation to HOLD.
- 2Q15 Core Net Income: PHP3.84b (-9% YoY), bringing 1H15 to PHP8.17b (-5%), which is 45% of the full-year forecast.
- Core Net Profit: FY15E PHP18,239.0m, FY16E PHP21,274.5m, FY17E PHP23,282.9m.
- Core EPS: FY13A PHP2.52, FY14A PHP2.27, FY15E PHP2.48, FY16E PHP2.89, FY17E PHP3.16.
- Core EPS Growth: FY13A (-18.8%), FY14A (-10.1%), FY15E (+9.2%), FY16E (+16.6%), FY17E (+9.4%).
- Core P/E: FY13A 17.4x, FY14A 19.3x, FY15E 17.7x, FY16E 15.2x, FY17E 13.9x.
- P/BV: FY13A 3.7x, FY14A 3.5x, FY15E 3.2x, FY16E 3.0x, FY17E 2.7x.
- Net Dividend Yield: 3.8% for all years.
- ROAE: FY13A 22.0%, FY14A 18.6%, FY15E 19.0%, FY16E 20.3%, FY17E 20.3%.
- ROAA: FY13A 10.4%, FY14A 8.1%, FY15E 7.7%, FY16E 7.7%, FY17E 7.7%.
- EV/EBITDA: FY13A 10.5x, FY14A 11.9x, FY15E 12.1x, FY16E 11.6x, FY17E 11.5x.
- Net Debt/Equity: FY13A net cash, FY14A 2.9%, FY15E 1.5%, FY16E 52.2%, FY17E 71.6%.

Property

HOUSE: Reports 18% growth in net income for 1H15, with a full-year guidance of PHP4.0b.
- 1H15 Net Income: PHP2.3b (+18% YoY).
- Revenues: Grew 11% to PHP4.39b due to project completion.
- Sales Take-up: Increased 17% to PHP4.75b, driven by lower interest rates and strong macroeconomic factors.
- Long-term Plan: To grow net income by 20% annually for the next five years, expanding to other provinces like Bacolod, Bulacan, and Zamboanga.
- Current Projects: Urban Deca towers in Mandaluyong are 20% complete, and receivable take-outs to HDMF reached PHP1.8b in 1H15.

Oil

Shell: Announces job cuts and investment reductions due to low oil prices.
- Job Cuts: 6,500 positions eliminated in 2015.
- Cost Reduction: Aims to cut operating costs by 10% and reduce capital investment by USD7b (20%).
- 2Q15 Net Income: Fell 25% YoY to USD3.99b.
- Brent Crude Price: Averaged USD62/bbl in 2Q15, down from USD110 in 2Q14.
- Stake Sale: Agreed to sell 33% stake in Japan's Showa Shell Sekiyu for USD1.4b.

Media

Kidzania Manila: Set to open on August 7, 2015, in Bonifacio Global City.
- Ownership: 73% by ABS-CBN Corp, 27% by Singapore-based Kidz Edutainment Ltd.
- Admission Prices: PHP750 for children, PHP420 for adults.
- Expected Visitors: About 600k in the first full year of operations.
- Break-even: Expected to break even in three years.

Gaming

Tiger Resort Leisure and Entertainment Inc: Plans to increase casino budget to USD4b in exchange for an extension on its gaming license.
- Initial Phase: Scheduled to open in Dec 2016, with 1,000 rooms, 500 gaming tables, a nightclub, and an outdoor beach.

Market Talk Highlights

AP: The decline in core net income is attributed to lower steam flow and higher operating expenses. However, ancillary service revenue grew significantly due to increased capacity.
MWC: Posted PHP3.04b in 1H15 net income (-4% YoY), with revenue growth of 4% to PHP8.45b. EBITDA slightly fell due to a decline in other income.
Banks: Includes BDO, BPI, CHIB, EW, MBT, PBB, PNB, RCB, UBP.
- BDO: Target price PHP123.00, 24% upside, BUY recommendation.
- BPI: Target price PHP101.00, 5% upside, HOLD recommendation.
- CHIB: Target price PHP51.00, 10% upside, HOLD recommendation.
- EW: Target price PHP29.00, 37% upside, BUY recommendation.
- MBT: Target price PHP105.00, 18% upside, BUY recommendation.
- PBB: Target price PHP18.00, -9% upside, HOLD recommendation.
- PNB: Target price PHP77.00, 21% upside, HOLD recommendation.
- RCB: Target price PHP62.00, 60% upside, BUY recommendation.
- UBP: Target price PHP66.00, 10% upside, HOLD recommendation.

The Week Ahead

July 30: Earnings reports from Easycall Communications Phils., Inc., Philippine Seven Corporation, Macay Holdings, Inc., Makati Finance Corporation.
July 31: Leisure & Resorts World Corporation, Anglo Philippine Holdings Corporation, Annual Stockholder's Meetings.

Key Financial Metrics Table

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Recommendation	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	99.50	123.00	24	BUY	2014	22,466	6.27	0.9	15.9	2.10	2.1	48.56	2.0	1.3	13.5	13.5
BPI	96.30	101.00	5	HOLD	2014	18,039	4.62	-10.9	20.8	0.91	0.9	36.64	2.6	1.4	14.0	14.5
CHIB	46.25	51.00	10	HOLD	2014	5,116	3.08	-5.9	15.0	1.00	2.2	32.09	4.9	89.8	4.1	14.4
EW	21.20	29.00	37	BUY	2014	2,073	1.84	-	11.5	-	-	19.01	-	-	-	-
MBT	89.00	105.00	18	BUY	2014	19,614	7.15	-10.9	12.5	1.00	1.1	50.49	1.8	1.3	13.8	14.0
PBB	19.80	18.00	-9	HOLD	2014	475	1.11	-52.7	17.9	-	-	17.25	1.1	-	-	-
PNB	63.50	77.00	21	HOLD	2014	5,359	4.34	-8.5	14.6	-	-	66.02	1.0	0.9	6.1	10.6
RCB	38.80	62.00	60	BUY	2014	3,969	3.11	-8.1	12.5	-	-	19.01	-	-	-	-
SMPH	21.25	22.00	4	BUY	2014	19,035	0.69	8.5	31.0	0.18	0.9	5.88	3.0	41.7	5.3	10.5
UBP	59.75	66.00	10	HOLD	2014	8,401	7.94	-6.9	7.5	2.67	1.1	42.10	1.8	1.3	13.0	13.8

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo: Head of Research / Economist, contact: (632)849 8836, luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
Ramon Adviento: ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com
Michael Bengson: michael_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Rommel Rodrigo: rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Lovell Sarreal: lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
Katherine Tan: kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com

Summary

This document outlines the financial performance and market insights for key sectors and companies in the Philippines, with a focus on the utilities and property industries. It includes detailed financial metrics, earnings reports, and analyst recommendations, providing a comprehensive view of the market's current status and future expectations.

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