20150907-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_843kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - September 7, 2015

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Philippine stock market and sector performance as of September 7, 2015, with a focus on the property sector. It includes key financial metrics, analyst insights, and upcoming events.

Main Points

Market Overview

PSEi Index: Closed at 7,051.78 with a -0.66% change.
Turnover: PHP 5,840.04 million, down by 8.96%.
PLDT ADR (USD): Closed at USD 51.44, with a -0.96% change.
PLDT ADR (PHP): Closed at PHP 2,404.15, with a -0.95% change.
Ave Interbank Rate: 2.53%, no change (0 bps).
PHP/USD Rate: 46.74, with a 0.06% change.

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Analysts: Ramon Adviento, Michael Bengson, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan

Top Idea

Property Sector: Still in the growth phase of the cycle.
- Key Drivers: Strong economy, low interest rates, healthy banking system, and a large, young population.
- Growth Areas: Residential development remains the backbone, but recurring income from BPO, retail, and tourism is growing faster.
- Rating: OVERWEIGHT for the property sector.

Earnings Visibility

The property sector has shown an average earnings growth of 20.8% over the last five years.
Analysts expect continued growth in the coming years, with an estimated average earnings growth of 17.6% from 2014 to 2017.

Key Companies in Property Sector

Ayala Land Inc. (ALI): BUY rating, 36% upside potential.
Filinvest Land Inc. (FLI): BUY rating, 36.4% upside potential.
Megaworld Corp. (MEG): BUY rating, 70% upside potential.
Vistaland And Lifescapes Inc. (VLL): BUY rating, 44.3% upside potential.
SM Prime Holdings Inc. (SMPH): HOLD rating.
Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC): HOLD rating.

Market Talk

Conglomerates

DOTC and LRMC: Planning to transfer operations of LRT 1 to LRMC by the end of September or October 2015. LRT 1 serves about 460,000 passengers per day.
First Philippine Holdings Corp (FPH): Appointed Francis Giles B. Puno as President & COO, effective 1 Oct 2015, replacing Elpidio L. Ibañez.

Utilities

Manila Electric Co (MER): Earmarked PHP 1.5 billion to automate its system, aiming to improve remote control capabilities and emergency response.

Upcoming Events

Sept 10: IRC Properties, Inc
Sept 12: Waterfront Philippines, Inc
Sept 15: Alliance Global Group, Inc
Sept 17: Filsyn Corporation
Sept 24: Manila Broadcasting Company
Sept 25: STI Education Systems Holdings, Inc
Sept 30: PAL Holdings, Inc

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 4 September 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rating	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/Share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
ALI	35.80	48.60	36	BUY	2014	14,803	1.04	24.5	34.3	0.29	0.8	7.04	4.7	89.8	4.1	14.4
FLI	1.76	2.40	36	BUY	2014	4,602	0.19	15.8	9.3	0.05	2.8	2.02	0.8	23.6	8.0	9.1
MEG	4.18	7.10	70	BUY	2014	9,399	0.29	17.1	14.3	0.02	0.6	3.17	1.0	6.3	4.8	8.1
RLC	28.75	31.00	8	HOLD	2014	4,735	1.16	1.8	24.9	0.36	1.1	12.03	2.2	41.7	5.3	9.3
VLL	5.82	8.40	44	BUY	2014	5,710	0.67	12.7	8.7	0.10	2.0	5.68	0.9	66.9	6.0	11.2
SMPH	19.06	22.00	15	HOLD	2014	19,035	0.69	8.5	27.8	0.18	1.1	5.88	2.7	52.7	4.9	10.6
MER	279.00	306.00	10	HOLD	2014	18,128	16.08	6.5	17.3	11.95	4.3	70.22	4.0	(0.1)	6.8	23.5

Key Insights

The property sector is expected to continue its growth phase due to favorable economic and financial conditions.
Residential development remains a key driver, while recurring income from BPO, retail, and tourism is growing faster.
Companies like ALI, FLI, MEG, and VLL are rated BUY, indicating strong upside potential.
RLC and SMPH are rated HOLD, as they have reached target prices.
The automation of MER's system is expected to enhance operational efficiency and emergency response capabilities.

Conclusion

The property sector in the Philippines is in a growth phase, supported by a strong economy, low interest rates, and a young population. Analysts are optimistic about the sector's future performance, with several companies showing potential for earnings growth and capital appreciation. The document highlights the importance of continued investment and development in both urban and provincial areas.

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