20140910-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_394kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - September 10, 2014
Core Content Overview
The document presents a financial update for the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEi) on September 10, 2014, highlighting key financial metrics and analyst insights for various companies. It includes earnings performance, valuation data, and market outlook for the week ahead.
Key Financial Metrics
- PSEi Index: 7,253.67, down 0.84%.
- Turnover (PHPm): 8,627.94, up 14.82%.
- PLDT ADR (USD): 77.51, down 0.73%.
- PLDT ADR (PHP): 3,387.96, down 0.34%.
- Ave Interbank Rate: 2.25, no change.
- PHP/USD Rate: 43.71, down 0.34%.
Analysts
- Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
- Analysts: Lovell Sarreal, Rommel Rodrigo, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento
Top Idea: Mining Sector
- Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corp (AT):
- Target Price: PHP16.00
- Recommendation: BUY (unchanged)
- Performance:
- 1H14 income rose marginally YoY to PHP714m, a significant improvement from the 79% plunge in 1Q14.
- 2Q14 earnings increased by 385% QoQ and 307% YoY to PHP592m, driven by forex gains and Berong Nickel's performance.
- Carmen Copper Corp:
- Revenues rose 18% YoY to PHP7.6b.
- Cash costs increased 38% YoY, resulting in EBITDA of PHP2.6b, down 5% YoY.
- Expected to improve in 2H14 with higher throughput and copper grades.
- Berong Nickel Corp:
- Revenues surged 147% YoY to PHP1,114m in 1H14 and 76% in 2Q14.
- Benefited from the Indonesian ore ban.
- Expected to reach 314k WMT in 2H14 with sustained nickel prices.
- Full-Year Earnings Forecast: PHP3.4b for 2014F, with a BUY recommendation.
Market Talk
- Lucio Tan Group and SMC:
- Signed a joint agreement for the purchase of SMC's 49% stake in Philippine Airlines (PAL).
- The deal was rumored to be worth USD1b, but SMC has not confirmed the details.
Financial Highlights (1H13 vs. 1H14 and 2Q13 vs. 2Q14)
| Metric | 1H13 (PHPm) | 1H14 (PHPm) | % YoY | 2Q13 (PHPm) | 2Q14 (PHPm) | % YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenues | 6,578 | 7,929 | 20.5 | 3,452 | 4,598 | 33.2 |
| Mining and Miling Costs | (3,838) | (5,030) | 31.0 | (1,997) | (2,832) | 41.8 |
| Operating Income | 1,936 | 2,044 | 5.6 | 1,061 | 1,311 | 23.6 |
| Net Income | 750 | 989 | 31.8 | 181 | 871 | 381.0 |
| Net Income to Equity | 713 | 714 | 0.2 | 146 | 592 | 306.7 |
Valuation Table (As of 9 September 2014)
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Recommendation | Year | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 94.80 | 96.00 | 1 | HOLD | 2013 | 22,268 | 6.22 | 37.5 | 15.2 | 2.10 | 2.2 | 44.28 | 2.1 | - | 1.5 | 14.5 |
| BPI | 96.50 | 93.50 | (3) | HOLD | 2014 | 18,841 | 4.79 | (9.3) | 20.1 | 1.80 | 1.9 | 35.88 | 2.7 | - | 1.7 | 18.7 |
| CHIB | 55.00 | 55.00 | - | HOLD | 2014 | 5,152 | 3.61 | 1.0 | 15.2 | 1.20 | 2.0 | 38.76 | 4.0 | - | 1.5 | 15.0 |
| EW | 29.40 | 31.80 | 8 | HOLD | 2014 | 2,217 | 1.96 | 7.9 | 15.0 | - | - | 19.14 | 1.5 | - | 1.4 | 13.9 |
| MBT | 88.30 | 95.00 | 8 | HOLD | 2014 | 16,102 | 5.87 | 44.0 | 21.2 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 48.88 | 1.8 | - | 1.3 | 14.4 |
| PBB | 20.60 | 21.60 | 5 | HOLD | 2014 | 688 | 2.01 | (9.3) | 17.0 | 1.80 | 1.9 | 35.56 | 2.4 | - | 1.5 | 15.7 |
| PNB | 87.00 | 109.00 | 25 | BUY | 2014 | 5,431 | 4.40 | (6.8) | 19.8 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 68.18 | 1.3 | - | 1.1 | 12.5 |
| RCB | 54.15 | 65.00 | 20 | BUY | 2014 | 5,616 | 4.40 | 23.4 | 17.0 | 1.00 | 1.8 | 35.56 | 2.4 | - | 1.5 | 15.7 |
| PNBP | 20.60 | 21.60 | 5 | HOLD | 2014 | 688 | 2.01 | (9.3) | 17.0 | 1.80 | 1.9 | 35.56 | 2.4 | - | 1.5 | 15.7 |
| SMPH | 17.06 | 21.70 | 27 | BUY | 2014 | 19,265 | 0.69 | 9.8 | 24.6 | 0.19 | 1.1 | 6.38 | 2.7 | - | 1.4 | 11.3 |
| VLL | 6.01 | 6.80 | 13 | HOLD | 2014 | 5,291 | 0.62 | 4.4 | 9.7 | 0.15 | 2.4 | 6.15 | 3.4 | - | 1.0 | 11.0 |
The Week Ahead
- Sept 13: Waterfront Philippines, Inc.
- Sept 16: Alliance Global Group, Inc.
- Sept 18: MRC Allied Industries, Inc.
- Sept 22: APC Group, Inc.
- Sept 24: Liberty Flour Mills, Inc.
- Annual Stockholders' Meetings: Multiple companies are scheduled to hold annual meetings.
Summary
The report focuses on the mining and financial sectors, highlighting the performance of Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corp (AT), which has seen significant improvements in its earnings due to forex gains and the robust performance of its subsidiaries. Analysts maintain a BUY recommendation for AT, projecting a full-year earnings forecast of PHP3.4b for 2014. The market talk section discusses a potential stake buyback deal between Lucio Tan group and SMC for Philippine Airlines. The valuation table provides detailed financial data for various companies, including earnings, EPS growth, and other financial indicators, with recommendations ranging from HOLD to BUY. The document also outlines the upcoming events for the week, including several company earnings reports and stockholder meetings.
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