20140225-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_379kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - 25 February 2014
Core Content
This document provides a financial summary and analysis of various sectors and companies in the Philippine market, including the PSEi index, key financial metrics, and analyst insights. It also includes market updates and forecasts for several stocks.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| PSEi | 6,296.32 | -0.19% |
| Turnover (PHPm) | 10,494.01 | +40.90% |
| PLDT ADR (USD) | 59.94 | -0.12% |
| PLDT ADR (PHP) | 2,672.13 | -0.08% |
| Ave interbank rate | 2.03 | +3.13 bps |
| PHP/USD rate | 44.64 | +0.03% |
Analysts
- Luz Lorenzo: Head of Research / Economist
- Laura Dy-Liacco: Analyst
- Rommel Rodrigo: Analyst
- Lovell Sarreal: Analyst
- Katherine Tan: Analyst
- Ramon Adviento: Analyst
Top Idea
Energy Sector: PNX (PHP4.90)
- Rating: BUY (unchanged)
- Target Price: Revised to PHP7.22 from PHP7.44
- Performance: Despite weak 4Q13 profits, growth remains intact.
- Full-Year 2013 Profit: PHP665m
- Net Profit to Common: PHP608m (below forecast of PHP688m)
- Volume Sales: Increased by 28% YoY to 1,125m liters
- EBIT: Grew by 14% to PHP1.31b
- Gross Profit Margin: Held above PHP3/L
- Finance Costs: Increased significantly in 4Q13 to PHP253m
- Revised 2014 Profit Forecast: PHP1.07b (down 9% from previous forecast of PHP1.18b)
- Growth Estimate: Still indicates a robust 76% YoY growth
Market Talk
Property
- SMPH: Reported flat 2013 earnings of PHP16.27b, with a 5% revenue growth to PHP59.79b. The one-time restructuring cost of PHP1.28b reduced net income.
- ALI: Raised PHP15b through bond issuance to fund capital expenditures. Acquired PhilEnergy from Mitsubishi Corp, becoming the sole owner of the energy-saving business.
Consumer
- EMP: Achieved 17% profit growth in 2013, slightly below the PHP6b consensus forecast. Revenue increased by 25.6% to PHP29.6b due to higher volume and excise taxes.
- Capital Expenditure Plan: EMP allocated PHP4b for additional production capacity in the Philippines and invested PHP5.8b in vineyards, distilleries, and bodegas in Spain.
Banks
- NPL Ratio: Thrift, rural, and coop banks had a 7.33% NPL ratio in 9M13, up from 7.32% in 1H13 and 7.53% in 9M12.
- NPL Cover Ratio: 66.10% in 9M13, down from 68.26% in 1H13 and 67.82% in 9M12.
- Loan Portfolio: Expanded by 14.5% to PHP617.49b.
- Top Industries: Real estate, personal consumption, agriculture, wholesale and retail trade, and financial intermediation.
Earnings and Valuations Table (As of 24 February 2014)
Banks
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rating | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 83.15 | 88.00 | 6 | BUY | 13,953 | 4.46 | 17.4 | 18.6 | - | - | 42.29 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 |
| BPI | 91.00 | 93.50 | 3 | HOLD | 16,291 | 4.58 | 27.1 | 19.9 | 2.30 | 2.5 | 27.30 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 17.5 | 18.8 |
| CHIB | 58.00 | 57.75 | 0 | HOLD | 5,049 | 3.54 | 0.8 | 16.4 | 1.20 | 2.1 | 29.46 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 12.5 | 13.0 |
| EW | 26.85 | 31.80 | 18 | BUY | 1,750 | 18.15 | -5.6 | 12.6 | 4.80 | 2.1 | 142.91 | 1.6 | 28.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| MBT | 81.10 | 96.00 | 18 | BUY | 11,520 | 4.20 | 8.7 | 19.3 | 1.20 | 2.5 | 39.08 | 1.6 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| PNB | 86.65 | 111.00 | 28 | BUY | 4,652 | 18.15 | -5.6 | 12.6 | 4.80 | 2.1 | 142.91 | 1.6 | 28.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| RC | 63.20 | 77.50 | 23 | BUY | 1,070 | 1.19 | 121.5 | 22.1 | 65.00 | 3.8 | 350.81 | 4.8 | 117.7 | 7.3 | 21.5 |
Property
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rating | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALI | 28.40 | 37.80 | 33 | BUY | 9,038 | 0.69 | 26.5 | 41.0 | 1.80 | 2.4 | 6.31 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| FLI | 1.44 | 2.20 | 53 | BUY | 3,431 | 0.51 | -5.6 | 12.6 | 4.80 | 2.1 | 142.91 | 1.6 | 28.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| MEG | 4.02 | 4.20 | 4 | BUY | 7,294 | 0.98 | 27.2 | 45.8 | 0.14 | 0.3 | 9.94 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| VLL | 5.27 | 6.70 | 27 | BUY | 3,025 | 18.15 | -5.6 | 12.6 | 4.80 | 2.1 | 142.91 | 1.6 | 28.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| DMPL | 23.50 | 35.20 | 50 | BUY | 1,355 | 0.87 | 14.5 | 27.0 | 0.62 | 2.6 | 6.74 | 3.5 | 46.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
Consumer
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rating | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JFC | 160.70 | 191.00 | 19 | BUY | 3,698 | 0.87 | 14.5 | 27.0 | 0.62 | 2.6 | 6.74 | 3.5 | 46.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| PIP | 4.40 | 6.05 | 38 | BUY | 1,355 | 0.87 | 14.5 | 27.0 | 0.62 | 2.6 | 6.74 | 3.5 | 46.2 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| RFM | 5.40 | 6.65 | 23 | BUY | 1,103 | 0.71 | -18.4 | 49.3 | 0.53 | 2.3 | 7.11 | 3.3 | 49.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| URC | 131.00 | 160.00 | 22 | BUY | 952 | 0.61 | -13.7 | 55.8 | 0.45 | 1.9 | 7.14 | 3.3 | 55.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| RRHI | 63.20 | 77.50 | 23 | BUY | 1,070 | 1.19 | 121.5 | 22.1 | 65.00 | 3.8 | 350.81 | 4.8 | 117.7 | 7.3 | 21.5 |
| CIC | 27.00 | 36.50 | 35 | BUY | 426 | 4.26 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.90 | 10.7 | 12.93 | 2.1 | 66.9 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| PGOLD | 45.00 | 50.00 | 11 | BUY | 2,718 | 0.98 | 27.2 | 45.8 | 0.14 | 0.3 | 9.94 | 4.5 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 |
The Week Ahead
- 25 Feb: Del Monte Pacific Limited - Analysts' Briefing
- 26 Feb: Roxas and Company, Inc. - Annual Stockholders' Meeting
This summary highlights the financial performance and outlook for key sectors and stocks, including updates on earnings, valuations, and analyst ratings.
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