20150623-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_320kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - June 23, 2015
Core Content
This report provides an overview of the Philippine stock market and consumer sector performance for the first quarter of 2015 (1Q15), along with key insights from analysts and upcoming events.
Key Market Data
| Indicator | Value | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| PSEi Index | 7,609.14 | 0.10 |
| Turnover (PHPm) | 5,443.65 | (36.76) |
| PLDT ADR (USD) | 62.17 | 0.26 |
| PLDT ADR (PHP) | 2,800.76 | 0.12 |
| Ave interbank rate | 2.50 | 0 bps |
| PHP/USD rate | 45.03 | (0.03) |
Analysts
- Luz Lorenzo – Head of Research / Economist, Maybank ATRKE
- Ramon Adviento – (63) 28498845
- Michael Bengson – (63) 28498840
- Rommel Rodrigo – (632) 849 8839
- Lovell Sarreal – (632) 849 8841
- Katherine Tan – (632) 849 8843
Top Idea
- Consumer Sector: Despite a slow start, the sector is expected to have a happy ending. The analysts maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector.
- URC (Universal Robina Corp): Led the sector with strong performance, showing 22% sales growth and 26% EBIT growth in 1HFY9/15.
- Sector EBIT Forecast: Revised down by 2.4% due to downgrades of RRHI and RFM, but still shows potential for growth.
Market Talk
Acquisition Talks
- GMA7: Acquisition talks with Ramon Ang were terminated. The company is still rated BUY.
Telecoms
- A bill was passed allowing customers to unlock mobile phones before the lock-in period ends. This will be beneficial for consumers and may impact service providers.
Utilities
- BatMan 1: Bidding is set to proceed this year following a feasibility study.
- Malampaya: Fully restored after a pipeline leak, but no assurance of future incidents.
- PNOC: Barred from power projects due to legal opinion and Senate position.
Consumer Sector Analysis
Performance Highlights
- URC: Strongest performance with 22% sales and 26% EBIT growth.
- JFC: EBIT growth of 4% due to slower revenue growth and higher raw material costs.
- RRHI: EBIT growth of 4%, with sales growth of 13%.
- PGOLD: EBIT growth of 9%, with sales growth of 12.5%.
- PF: EBIT growth of 10%, with sales growth of 22%.
- RFM: EBIT growth of 22%, with sales growth of 14.9%.
- PIP: EBIT growth of 56%, leading small and mid-caps.
- CIC: Slowest EBIT growth at 3%, due to high base from trade loading.
- EMP: Worst performer with EBIT falling 19.1% due to last year's inflated results.
Key Figures
| Stock | Market Cap (USDb) | Rating | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | P/E (x) 15E | EV/EBITDA (x) 15E | Div Yield (%) 15E | ROE (%) 15E | Revenue Growth (%) 15E | Adj. Earnings Growth (%) 15E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URC | 9.7 | BUY | 250.00 | 25.0 | 30.1 | 18.5 | 1.5 | 24.2 | 24.3 | 27.0 |
| JFC | 4.6 | HOLD | 227.00 | 15.8 | 34.7 | 18.2 | 1.0 | 20.6 | 12.0 | 12.4 |
| RRHI | 2.3 | BUY | 85.00 | 12.6 | 23.7 | 11.2 | 0.7 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 22.3 |
| PGOLD | 2.3 | BUY | 47.50 | 25.0 | 21.0 | 12.2 | 0.9 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 10.8 |
| PF | 0.6 | BUY | 285.00 | 70.7 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 17.3 | 6.8 | 34.1 |
| RFM | 0.3 | BUY | 5.60 | 31.5 | 15.7 | 10.4 | 1.7 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 13.4 |
| PIP | 0.4 | BUY | 5.10 | 9.4 | 18.4 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 15.5 |
| CIC | 0.4 | BUY | 72.00 | 24.1 | 25.6 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 25.2 | 17.7 | 20.6 |
| DNL | 1.5 | HOLD | 16.80 | (11.1) | 27.4 | 20.3 | 0.8 | 20.7 | 46.1 | 40.3 |
| EMP | 3.3 | BUY | 13.00 | 42.5 | 21.2 | 14.4 | - | 14.4 | 35.4 | 12.0 |
What's Our View
- The analysts believe the sector has potential for improvement due to the full effects of lower inflation, reduced port congestion, and the boost from election spending.
- The revised EBIT forecast for the sector is expected to grow by 24% compared to 13% in 1Q15.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT rating on the consumer sector.
The Week Ahead
- June 23: LT Group, Inc.
- June 24: Philex Mining Corporation, Primex Corporation, Pryce Corporation, Jolliville Holdings Corporation, Cebu Air, Inc., Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc.
- June 25: Solid Group, Inc., Discovery World Corporation, Concrete Aggregates Corporation, Global-EstateResorts, Inc., Lorenzo Shipping Corporation, Anchor Land Holdings, Inc.
- Annual Stockholders' Meetings: Multiple companies are set to hold meetings.
Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 22 June 2015)
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rating | Year | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS (PHP) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/Share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 110.00 | 123.00 | 12 | BUY | 2014 | 22,466 | 6.27 | 0.9 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 1.9 | 48.56 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 13.5 | |
| BPI | 97.80 | 101.00 | 3 | HOLD | 2014 | 18,039 | 4.62 | (10.9) | 21.2 | 2.70 | 0.9 | 36.64 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 14.0 | |
| CHIB | 45.65 | 51.00 | 12 | HOLD | 2014 | 5,116 | 3.08 | (5.9) | 14.8 | 1.00 | 2.2 | 29.02 | 7.7 | 1.3 | 10.7 | |
| EW | 20.00 | 29.00 | 45 | BUY | 2014 | 2,073 | 1.84 | 0.9 | 10.9 | - | - | 19.01 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 14.5 | |
| MBT | 90.80 | 105.00 | 16 | BUY | 2014 | 19,614 | 7.15 | (10.9) | 12.7 | 1.00 | 1.1 | 50.49 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13.8 | |
| PBB | 18.00 | 18.00 | - | HOLD | 2014 | 4,519 | 3.66 | (22.5) | 18.8 | 2.10 | 2.0 | 36.64 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 14.0 | |
| RCB | 41.65 | 62.00 | 49 | BUY | 2014 | 3,969 | 3.11 | (8.1) | 24.4 | 2.10 | 2.2 | 32.09 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 4.1 | |
| UBP | 9.12 | 13.00 | 43 | BUY | 2014 | 6,204 | 0.36 | (6.1) | 25.0 | 0.15 | 1.6 | 2.70 | 3.4 | (13.4) | 9.2 | |
| EMP | 9.12 | 13.00 | 43 | BUY | 2014 | 6,951 | 0.41 | 12.0 | 22.3 | 0.15 | 1.7 | 2.96 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 8.1 |
Conclusion
- The consumer sector showed mixed results in 1Q15, with big caps lagging expectations and small/mid-caps performing in line with forecasts.
- Despite the slow start, the analysts remain optimistic about the sector's future performance.
- The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming events and the potential for growth in the sector.
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