2006年-世界发展银行全球_State_and_Trends_of_the_Carbon_Market_2006___A_Focus_on_Africa_27页_392kb

报告摘要

2006 Carbon Market Summary: Focus on Africa

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global carbon market in 2006, with a specific focus on Africa's role in the market. It highlights both the challenges and opportunities for African countries in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other carbon trading mechanisms.

Main Points

Global Market Growth: The global carbon market grew significantly in 2006, reaching an estimated value of US$21.5 billion by the end of September, more than double the previous year's value.
EU ETS Dominance: The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) was the largest carbon market in terms of both volume and value, with 764 million tCO₂e of EUAs traded in the first nine months of 2006, valued at US$18.9 billion.
Africa's Share: Africa's share of the CDM market increased to 5.7% of the primary market, and its share of the project-based market rose from 2.3% to 5.1% in 2006. However, its overall contribution to the global market remains small.
CDM Pipeline and Transactions: As of October 31, 2006, Africa had 1274 projects in the CDM pipeline, with 17 in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and 19 in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). 27.8 MtCO₂e of CDM projects had been transacted, with South Africa and Egypt being the leading sellers.
Price Trends: CERs and ERUs traded at average prices of US$10.50 and US$8, respectively. African CDM projects traded at a discount of US$2 per tCO₂e compared to the average primary CER price.
Project Types in Africa: The majority of African CDM projects are focused on fugitive emissions (70%), followed by landfill gas (17%) and nitrous oxide destruction (10%). Renewable energy and energy efficiency projects account for 7.5% and 6.2% of the volume, respectively.
Challenges in Africa: African countries face several challenges, including limited energy and industrial sectors, exclusion of carbon sequestration from avoided deforestation and agriculture from the CDM, and methodological and institutional barriers to project development.
Opportunities in Africa: There are opportunities for CDM in areas such as reforestation, afforestation, waste-to-energy, water and sanitation, and transport. These projects can provide environmental, social, and economic benefits.
Market Expectations: Analysts expect the Phase II EU ETS market to be short, with a 95% probability of a 700 MtCO₂ shortfall, and Phase II EUA prices to be above €10. The EU Commission is expected to set a rigorous and fair cap based on 2005 emissions data.

Key Information

CDM Pipeline and Projects Transacted

Total CDM projects in Africa: 1274 (as of October 31, 2006).
Projects in MENA: 17.
Projects in SSA: 19.
CDM projects transacted in Africa: 27.8 MtCO₂e.
South Africa's share: ~40% of transacted CDM volumes.
Egypt's share: ~30% of transacted CDM volumes.

Project-Based Market Trends

Renewables: 7.5% of the CDM pipeline volume.
Energy efficiency and fuel switching: 6.2% of the CDM pipeline volume.
CDM volume for Africa by 2012: 98 MtCO₂e.
CDM volume for Africa by 2017: 1374 MtCO₂e (for all developing countries).

Market Participants

EU buyers: Dominated the primary project-based market with an 87% share (down from 50% in 2005).
Japanese buyers: Only 7% share in the primary project-based market.
Private sector buyers: Continued to purchase large volumes of CDM assets.
Public sector buyers: Dominated JI purchases.

Price Trends

CER average price: US$10.50 per tCO₂e.
ERU average price: US$8 per tCO₂e.
African CDM projects: Traded at US$8.3 per tCO₂e, a US$2 discount compared to the average primary CER price.

Market Outlook

EU ETS Phase II: Expected to be short, with a 95% probability of a 700 MtCO₂ shortfall.
Phase II EUA prices: Expected to be above €10, with a range of €7–€100.
CDM and JI credits: May be affected by supplementarity caps and overall allocations, which will influence future market direction.

Methodological and Institutional Barriers

Limited access to electricity in many African countries.
High energy losses in both technical and non-technical sectors.
Need for new methodologies to address waste-to-energy, water and sanitation, and transport.
Institutional and financial barriers hinder CDM development in Africa.

Conclusion

The report underscores the growing importance of Africa in the global carbon market, particularly in the CDM and project-based segments. While the continent's share remains relatively small, there are significant opportunities for development, especially in reforestation, afforestation, and waste-to-energy projects. However, methodological, institutional, and financial challenges continue to limit the potential of these projects. The EU ETS remains the dominant carbon market, with Phase II expected to be short, which may impact the demand for CDM and JI credits. The report calls for credible emissions targets, harmonized flexible instruments, and transparent disclosure of emissions data to support the long-term growth of the carbon market in Africa and globally.