2007年-世界发展银行全球_State_and_Trends_of_the_Carbon_Market_2007_52页_535kb

Summary of "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007"

Core Content

The State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007 report provides an overview of the global carbon market landscape in 2006, highlighting the growth and evolution of both allowance-based and project-based carbon trading systems. It outlines the key players, market dynamics, and future outlook for the carbon market, emphasizing the role of policy, financial instruments, and international cooperation in shaping its development.

Main Points

1. Market Growth and Value

• The carbon market grew significantly in 2006, with an estimated total value of US$30 billion (€23 billion), three times greater than in 2005.
• The EU ETS dominated the market, accounting for ~87% of the total value (€19 billion for EUAs and €3.8 billion for CERs).
• The voluntary market also showed strong growth, reaching ~US$100 million (€80 million) in 2006.
• Primary CDM transactions accounted for ~US$5 billion (€3.8 billion), while secondary CDM and JI transactions grew to ~US$5.4 billion (€4.1 billion).

2. EU ETS Overview

• The EU ETS Phase I (2005-2007) demonstrated the effectiveness of carbon pricing in stimulating emissions reductions, both within Europe and in developing countries.
• However, the initial cap was set too high, leading to market volatility and low prices during Phase I.
• The EU Commission emphasized that Phase I was a learning phase and aimed to set more stringent caps in Phase II to ensure correct and consistent application of the Directive and sufficient scarcity of allowances.
• The Phase II market saw a shift in focus, with higher expected caps and increased interest from buyers.

3. Project-Based Markets

• Project-based transactions (CDM and JI) showed greater price stability compared to the volatile EUA market.
• Developing countries supplied ~450 MtCO2e of CDM credits in 2006, with China accounting for 61% of the market.
• JI projects from economies in transition (Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria) saw a 45% increase in volume from 2005 to 2006.
• Secondary markets for CERs emerged, with prices ranging from US$14.30 to US$19.50 (€11 to €15), significantly higher than primary market prices.
• CER prices increased slightly in 2006, averaging US$10.90 (€8.40).

4. Market Participants

• European buyers dominated the primary CDM & JI market with 86% of the market share (down from 50% in 2005).
• Japanese buyers saw a sharp decline, with only 7% of the primary market share in 2006.
• U.K. led the project-based market with ~50% of the volume, followed by Italy at ~10%.
• Private sector buyers, including banks and carbon funds, continued to drive large volumes of CDM transactions, while public sector buyers remained dominant in JI.
• Secondary market activity increased, with international financial institutions and carbon funds engaging in transactions with European banks and compliance-focused companies.

5. Market Risks and Volatility

• Price risk remains significant in both CER and EUA markets.
• Volatility in the EU ETS Phase I market was due to incorrect assumptions about the cap and uncoordinated data releases.
• EU ETS Phase II is expected to have a shortfall of 0.9 to 1.5 billion tCO2e, which could influence the price of CERs/ERUs and potentially affect the EU ETS price equilibrium.

6. Future Outlook

• The prospect of EU ETS Phase III and the ability to bank allowances across periods provides a longer planning horizon for market participants.
• The Canadian government announced a 20% reduction target by 2020 compared to 2006 levels, potentially increasing demand for CERs.
• California, the eastern U.S., and Australia are showing promise for market continuity beyond 2012.
• The voluntary market is growing, but lacks a credible standard, which poses a reputation risk.
• The climate challenge requires a profound transformation, including public and private investments in clean technology, policy changes, and programmatic approaches to decouple economic growth from emissions.

Key Information

• EU ETS is the largest and most mature carbon market, with a significant impact on emissions abatement and market dynamics.
• Project-based markets (CDM and JI) are growing and becoming more price stable, with China playing a central role in CDM.
• Secondary markets for CERs are becoming more active, with higher prices than primary markets.
• Voluntary markets are expanding, but face challenges in standardization and credibility.
• Market participants are increasingly looking for long-term investments and flexibility in compliance strategies.
• Regulatory developments in North America, Australia, and Europe are shaping the future of the carbon market.

Conclusion

The carbon market in 2006 showed strong growth, driven by regulatory frameworks, international cooperation, and increased demand for emissions reductions. While the EU ETS remains the dominant market, project-based transactions and voluntary markets are also gaining momentum. However, volatility, lack of standardization, and policy uncertainty continue to pose challenges. The report concludes that the carbon market has the potential to be a credible tool for climate mitigation, provided that policy coherence, market transparency, and consistent regulation are achieved.