2006年-世界发展银行全球_State_and_Trends_of_the_Carbon_Market_2006___Update_January_1-September_30_2006_24页_339kb

Summary of the State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006

Core Content

The State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2006 report provides an overview of the carbon market's development from January to September 2006. It highlights the performance of both allowance-based and project-based markets, emphasizing the dominance of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the evolving dynamics of the project-based market, particularly through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI).

Main Points

1. Market Growth and Performance

• The carbon market grew in value to an estimated US $21.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2006, more than doubling the previous year’s value of US $11.06 billion.
• EU ETS was the largest segment, with 764 million tonnes of CO₂e traded at a market value of US $18.9 billion in 2006, compared to 324 million tonnes of CO₂e worth US $8.2 billion in 2005.
• The project-based market also saw growth, with US $2.41 billion in transactions for the first nine months of 2006, up from US $2.79 billion in 2005.

2. Key Market Players

• EU ETS was the dominant market in both volume and value.
• EU buyers accounted for 86% of project-based market volume, up from 50% in 2005, while Japanese buyers were a major source of demand, but their share decreased.
• Private sector buyers (banks and carbon funds) accounted for 87% of European project-based purchases in 2006, compared to 80% and 70% in 2005 and 2004 respectively.
• Public sector buyers were more prominent in JI purchases, with over 90% market share.

3. Regional Contributions

• Asia led in CDM credit supply with 84% of market volume, China at 60% and India at 15%.
• Latin America accounted for 9% of CDM supply in 2006, down from 19% in 2005.
• Africa saw an increase in CDM supply to 6.5%, up from 3% in 2005.
• Ukraine supplied one third of JI volumes.

4. Price Trends

• CER prices rose by almost 50%, averaging US $10.50 in 2006 (up from US $7.10 in 2005).
• ERU prices increased to US $7.98 in 2006, a 60% year-on-year rise, but remained cheaper than CERs.
• Voluntary and retail segments also saw price increases, with a weighted average of US $9.98 in 2006, up from US $7.17 in 2005.
• Secondary market prices for CERs were higher than primary markets, though data was limited.

5. Contract Structures

• Most contracts involved fixed forward or indexed forward agreements.
• Indexed forward contracts were often linked to EUA price indices.
• Some contracts included call options, milestone-based advance payments, and liquidated damages for non-compliance or delays.

6. Market Risks and Instruments

• Insurance products were developed to manage risks such as regulatory, delivery, and political breaches.
• These products were offered by entities like MIGA, Carbon Re, Swiss Re, Munich Re, AIG, Allianz, and Rabobank.
• However, many project developers were not considering these products at current market prices.

7. Technology and Project Types

• HFC-23 destruction projects dominated the market, accounting for 52% of project-based volumes in 2006 (down from 64% in 2005).
• Renewable energy (especially wind) accounted for 12% of the market, up from 10% in 2005.
• Energy efficiency and fuel switching projects accounted for 14% of the market, a significant increase from their near absence in 2005.
• Nitrous oxide destruction projects gained 11% market share in 2006 due to two approved methodologies.
• Landfill gas (LFG) projects declined to 6% of the market from 10% in 2005, due to estimation errors, weak project development, and monitoring plan revisions.

8. Market Outlook

• The EU ETS is expected to face shortage in Phase 2, with spot and future prices diverging.
• New regulations in California and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the U.S. may create long-term markets beyond 2012.
• Australia is also developing a national cap-and-trade program, which could further expand the market.
• Project-based credits could become more valuable if standardized and recognized across regimes.

Key Information

• EU ETS accounted for 764 million tonnes of CO₂e and US $18.9 billion in 2006.
• CDM and JI accounted for 234.05 million tonnes of CO₂e and US $2.41 billion in 2006.
• CERs and ERUs transacted at US $10.50 and US $8 respectively, with CERs being more valuable.
• Japan and the U.S. were important buyers in the retail and voluntary segments.
• Market risk remained high, with CERs and EUAs both facing uncertainty.
• Project developers and buyers were increasingly concerned about price discounts and valuation write-downs due to regulatory and operational risks.

Conclusion

The 2006 carbon market showed significant growth, particularly in the EU ETS and project-based segments. While project-based credits were in demand, especially from China and India, regulatory uncertainty and market volatility posed challenges. The development of new markets in the U.S. and Australia and the potential for standardization of project-based credits could shape the future direction of the carbon market.