2005年-世界发展银行全球_State_and_Trends_of_the_Carbon_Market_2005_44页_523kb

Summary of the State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2005

Core Content

The State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2005 report provides an overview of the development and dynamics of the global carbon market as of May 2005. It is based on data from Evolution Markets LLC and Natsource LLC, as well as interviews with market participants. The report outlines the structure of the carbon market, key trends, and the outlook for the future.

The carbon market includes two main types of transactions:

1. Allowance-based transactions, where buyers acquire emissions allowances (e.g., EU Allowances or Assigned Amount Units) under cap-and-trade regimes.
2. Project-based transactions, where buyers acquire emission reductions (ERs) from projects that produce measurable GHG reductions, such as those under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or Joint Implementation (JI).

The report emphasizes the growth of the project-based market, with a significant increase in traded volumes and the number of projects in development. It also highlights the evolving regulatory landscape, particularly the start of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol.

Main Findings

Project-Based Transactions

• Volume Growth: The market for project-based ERs has grown steadily, with 107 million tonnes of CO₂e traded in 2004, a 38% increase from 2003. In the first four months of 2005, 43 million tonnes of CO₂e were traded.
• Buyer Distribution: In 2004–2005, European private and public entities accounted for 60% of ER purchases, while Japan and Canada represented 21% and 4% respectively.
• Supply Concentration: The supply of ERs is heavily concentrated in a few countries, notably India, Brazil, and Chile. Africa has seen limited activity, with only one large-scale transaction reported.
• Project Types:
  • HFC-23 destruction remains the dominant type of emission reduction project, accounting for 25% of the volume.
  • Methane and N₂O capture from animal waste ranks second (18%), followed by hydro, biomass energy, and landfill gas capture (about 11% each).
  • Non-CO₂ emission abatement projects account for more than half of the total volume, while traditional energy efficiency or fuel switching projects account for less than 5%.
• Price Variability: Due to the heterogeneity of projects and contract terms, price spreads are large for project-based ERs. The price of Verified Emission Reductions (VERs) ranged from $3.6 to $5/tCO₂e, with a weighted average of $4.23. Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) traded between $3 and $7.15/tCO₂e, with a weighted average of $5.63/tCO₂e. The increase in prices is partly due to the decline of the dollar against the euro and other market dynamics.
• Risk Factors: Project-based transactions involve significant registration and delivery risks, especially for CDM and JI projects, which are not yet fully operational or validated.

Allowance Markets

• Active Markets: As of May 2005, there are four active allowance markets:
  • EU ETS
  • UK Emissions Trading System
  • New South Wales trading system
  • Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
• EU ETS: The largest of the four, with an estimated 39 million tonnes of CO₂e traded since January 2004, most of which occurred in 2005. The price of EU Allowances (EUAs) has increased significantly, from €7–9 in 2004 to over €17 in March and April 2005.
• Homogeneity: Unlike project-based ERs, allowances are homogeneous, leading to more stable and predictable pricing.
• Market Linkage: The EU ETS and JI/CDM markets are only partially connected, due to registration and delivery risks, technical uncertainties, and limited supply of allowances.

Outlook

• The carbon market is responding to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the start of the EU ETS.
• However, major uncertainties remain, including:
  • Lack of a long-term price signal beyond 2012, which limits the effectiveness of carbon finance.
  • Uncertainty about the supply of AAUs from Russia and Ukraine, which are key players in the market.
• The report suggests that increased activity is likely in the coming years, both in project- and allowance-based markets.
• The retail market is also growing, with small-scale buyers purchasing ERs to achieve climate neutrality and demonstrate social responsibility.

Key Information

• The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on February 16, 2005, and the EU ETS started operations on January 1, 2005.
• The carbon market is not yet fully developed, with regulatory uncertainty and limited participation from some regions, especially Africa.
• The project-based market is still dominated by CDM and JI projects, with new buyers emerging in Europe.
• The price gap between EUAs and CERs/VERs is growing, due to differences in market structure, risk, and regulatory framework.
• The data collection for project-based transactions is incomplete, with less than 50% of prices and less than 80% of contract structures reported.

Structure of the Carbon Market

• The market is divided into compliance, voluntary, and retail segments.
• Compliance transactions are the largest, driven by the Kyoto Protocol and EU ETS.
• Voluntary transactions are minimal, with only a small volume in the U.S..
• Retail transactions are characterized by small-scale purchases and non-regulatory motivations.

Methodology

• The report compiled data from Evolution Markets LLC and Natsource LLC, as well as interviews and publications.
• A database of 487 project-based transactions was created, covering data from 1996 to April 2005.
• Data completeness varies:
  • Buyer and seller countries are known for 94.4% and 84.9% of transactions.
  • Project location, type of gas, and transaction structure are known for 91.0%, 94.8%, and 85.1% of transactions.
  • Prices are available for 61.3% of transactions, and vintages for 68.8%.
• The database is considered conservative, as it excludes some private sector transactions and does not fully capture all project details due to confidentiality constraints.

Conclusion

The carbon market in 2005 is still in its early stages, with project-based transactions growing and allowance markets becoming more active. The Kyoto Protocol and EU ETS have provided regulatory clarity, but uncertainties remain, particularly regarding future supply and demand dynamics. The market is expected to expand in the coming years, driven by increasing regulatory pressures and the emergence of new buyers and sellers.