2016年-世界发展银行全球_Russian_Federation_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic___Pathways_to_Inclusive_Growth_190页_11mb

Summary of "Pathways to Inclusive Growth: The Russian Federation"

Core Content

This report, Pathways to Inclusive Growth: The Russian Federation, provides an in-depth analysis of Russia's macroeconomic and shared prosperity trends, productivity and human capital challenges, and the necessary reforms to ensure sustainable and inclusive growth. It is part of the World Bank's Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) initiative, focusing on how to address Russia's development challenges and opportunities in the context of its economic structure and social policies.

Main Trends and Challenges

Macroeconomic Trends

• Growth and Prosperity: From 1998-99 to 2011, Russia experienced strong and continuous growth, with significant gains in shared prosperity. The share of the population in poverty fell from about 30% in 2000 to under 11% in 2012.
• Commodity Boom: The boom in oil and gas prices (2000–2014) fueled economic growth, fiscal surpluses, and increased public reserves. However, the end of the commodity super-cycle in 2014 led to a sharp decline in growth and a recession.
• Structural Reforms: The 2000s saw structural reforms that strengthened the investment climate, diversified the economy, and improved infrastructure. These reforms slowed after 2012, leading to weaker growth dynamics.

Shared Prosperity

• Poverty and Inequality: The bottom 40% of the population saw faster income growth than the overall population during the commodity boom. However, inequality in access to education and health services has grown.
• Social Protection: Social protection spending has had a significant impact on reducing poverty and inequality, but its efficiency and coverage are under scrutiny. Pensions are the most effective in reducing poverty, but future sustainability is a concern.

Key Pathways for Inclusive Growth

Pathway One: Increasing Productivity for Diversified Growth

• Productivity Constraints: Russia faces challenges in physical infrastructure, connectivity (transport, logistics, ICT), and energy (electricity, oil, gas).
• Market Distortions: Trade and domestic regulations, as well as access to finance, hinder productivity growth.
• Innovation: Russia has a low capacity for innovation and a weak innovation support system.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Improve the investment climate.
  • Reallocate labor into higher-productivity formal jobs.
  • Enhance infrastructure and connectivity.
  • Strengthen innovation and skills development.

Pathway Two: Reducing Vulnerability by Deepening Human Capital Gains and Improving Access to Services

• Labor Market Vulnerability: Informality is growing, and labor reallocation to higher productivity sectors has slowed. The aging labor force requires higher individual productivity.
• Human Capital Challenges: Health outcomes are poor, especially for certain groups. Education quality declines after primary school, and investment in education is low.
• Social Protection: The social protection system, particularly pensions and social assistance, plays a critical role in reducing poverty and inequality. However, it needs to be more efficient and targeted.
• Policy Priorities:
  • Improve labor market conditions and reduce informality.
  • Enhance access to and quality of education and health services.
  • Ensure equitable distribution of social benefits.
  • Support regional convergence and equal opportunities.

Requisites for Sustainable Growth

Fiscal Sustainability

• Short to Medium-term Challenges: Balancing public investment and social entitlements is crucial. Russia has faced challenges in managing fiscal sustainability due to declining savings and rising public expenditures.
• Long-term Challenges: Population aging and intergenerational equity are major concerns. Fiscal consolidation strategies are needed to ensure long-term sustainability.

Good Governance

• Corruption and Accountability: Governance challenges include corruption, weak accountability, and poor oversight. These issues affect the implementation of both Pathway One and Pathway Two.
• Private Sector Development: Weak regulation and corporate governance hinder private sector growth and investment.

Natural Resource Management

• Environmental Challenges: Russia faces issues with natural resource degradation and climate change. Its heavy reliance on fossil fuels contributes to pollution and environmental liabilities.
• Sustainable Development: Better management of natural resources and environmental sustainability are essential for long-term growth and shared prosperity.

Policy Priorities and Actions

Key Policy Actions

• Investment Climate: Improve regulatory environment and reduce barriers to business.
• Infrastructure and Connectivity: Enhance physical infrastructure, transport, and digital connectivity.
• Innovation and Skills: Strengthen innovation systems and skills development programs.
• Social Protection: Improve the efficiency and effectiveness of social assistance and pension systems.
• Good Governance: Enhance accountability, transparency, and enforcement of regulations.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Implement fiscal consolidation strategies to manage public debt and ensure long-term sustainability.
• Environmental Management: Improve natural resource management and address environmental liabilities.

Links to the Twin Goals

• The report emphasizes the need for policies that simultaneously promote shared prosperity and poverty reduction.
• It identifies several policy priorities that directly impact these twin goals, including labor market reforms, education and health investments, and improved governance and fiscal management.

Conclusion

The report concludes that Russia's path to inclusive growth requires a combination of productivity enhancement, human capital investment, and improved governance and fiscal sustainability. While Russia has made significant progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity during the commodity boom, the post-boom period has exposed structural vulnerabilities that need to be addressed through targeted reforms and better policy implementation.

Key Figures and Data

• GDP Growth and Poverty Dynamics (1991–2015): Shows a strong correlation between economic growth and reduced poverty.
• Productivity Growth (1995–2015): Highlights the lag in productivity relative to other emerging markets.
• Shared Prosperity Trajectory (2007–2012): Demonstrates the significant gains in shared prosperity during the commodity boom.
• Fiscal Sustainability Indicators: Reflects the challenges in maintaining fiscal balance and managing public debt.
• Labor Market Vulnerability: Indicates the growing informality and inequality in labor outcomes.
• Education and Health Indicators: Shows declining quality and access in education and health services.

Annexes and References

The report includes several annexes and references that provide additional data and insights:

• Annex 1.1: Growth Decomposition Analysis.
• Annex 1.2: Poverty Measures in Russia.
• Annex 1.3: Cluster Analysis of the Poor Population.
• Annex 3.1: Estimates of the informal sector in Russia.
• Annex 4.1: Subnational finance lessons from two crises.
• Annex 5.1: Data and knowledge gaps.

These annexes support the main analysis by offering detailed data, case studies, and policy insights. The references include a range of sources, from national statistics to international reports and studies.

Authors and Contributors

The report was co-led by Birgit Hansl (Lead Economist) and Emily Sinnott (Senior Economist), with contributions from various World Bank and IFC teams. It also benefited from peer reviews and inputs from government, private sector, academia, and civil society stakeholders.